Monday. 30/9/2024
The Monocle Minute
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Politics / Andrew Mueller
Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah is an opportunity for Lebanon to shake off Hezbollah’s influence
In some respects, the death of Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli air strike is nothing new. Israel has long tracked and eliminated individuals whom it believes responsible for attacking it, often demonstrating the kind of patience that promotes complacency in a target: Israel’s pursuit of Palestinian terrorists responsible for the murders of 11 of its athletes at the 1972 Olympics continued into the 1980s. Nasrallah owed his position to the killing in 1992 of his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, by a missile launched from an Israeli helicopter.
Nasrallah’s elimination is nevertheless significant, even compared to other high-profile post-7 October assassinations, among them of senior Hezbollah military commanders Fuad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil, and Hamas’s political chair, Ismail Haniyeh. Nasrallah was seen, not least by himself, as the indomitable personification of the Arab world’s animus towards Israel, his organisation as a bastion of resistance. The incapacitation of thousands of Hezbollah members by exploding pagers hinted that the political party and group was more vulnerable than it wished to appear. The same, it turns out, was true of its leader.
Any number of pessimistic prognostications might now be made: the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, a Lebanese civil war, a bench-clearing brawl consuming the region and drawing in outside players. They might be good bets – this is the Middle East, after all. It is not unimaginable, however, that the removal of Nasrallah and the hobbling of Hezbollah will prove a net positive. The ghoulish mullahs in Tehran and the dismal regime in Syria are weaker today than they were a fortnight ago. Iran might have lost its main means of projecting itself abroad, and Bashar al-Assad a principal protector. And in Lebanon, there is an opportunity for other voices to fill the vacuum. Certainly, the experience of being compelled to host Hezbollah has been a decades-long lesson in what happens when they don’t.
Andrew Mueller is a contributing editor of Monocle. For more Middle East analysis, tune in to ‘The Globalist’ on Monocle Radio at 07.00 London time.
The Briefings
DIPLOMACY / USA
Volodymyr Zelensky meets Donald Trump as concerns rise over American support for Ukraine
Amid the flurry of diplomacy at the UN General Assembly last week, one the most important meetings was between Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and former US president Donald Trump. While Kamala Harris needs no convincing on Ukraine, Trump is very much a wild card. Zelensky’s so-called “victory plan”, which he presented in New York, depends on keeping the US on side. Without this, Vladimir Putin will know that he only has to wait for Ukrainians to lose their will to defend their nation or run out of resources.
For all the talk in the US of whether or not to continue funding Ukraine, it’s not guaranteed that Trump would immediately end support for the war. The Republican presidential hopeful believes that he can broker a deal between Zelensky and Putin “quite quickly” but hasn’t offered any substantive details. But if he is elected, even Trump might have second thoughts about pulling the plug, once the reality of the conflict and its effect on US national security hits home – which is why Zelensky’s meeting with Trump was a shrewd diplomatic move.
DEFENCE / CHINA
China’s new nuclear submarine sinks in port, according to US officials
US officials claim that China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank sometime between May and June. This is regarded as a major setback for Beijing, which is seeking to enhance its military prowess. The first of China’s new Zhou-class vessels was captured in official satellite pictures earlier this year at a pier in Wuhan, where it was being prepared for trials. But in early June, images taken at the same location showed only floating cranes, which naval experts suggest could have been used to raise the remnants of the vessel. Upon being questioned, Chinese authorities said that they had no information to provide. “Sinking in a dock is an embarrassment for any submarine programme so it’s not surprising that the People’s Liberation Army Navy wants to keep this quiet,” Isabel Hilton, the founder of China Dialogue, tells The Monocle Minute. “Despite this, China is likely to continue to invest in and expand its fleet of advanced submarines, with Russian co-operation.” Historically, the US Navy has enjoyed an uncontested lead in undersea warfare but with tensions rising in the Pacific, the battlefield beneath the waves has become a top priority for Beijing.
ART / Saudi Arabia
Anticipation mounts in Jeddah as the title of the 2025 Islamic Arts Biennale is announced
The Diriyah Biennale Foundation has announced the title of the Islamic Arts Biennale’s second edition. “And All That Is in Between” will run from 25 January to 25 May 2025 at the Western Hajj Terminal of King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. With five exhibition halls, canopied outdoor spaces and more than 500 artworks on show, the biennale will host at least 30 international institutions.
The event will explore the experience of faith by juxtaposing ancient pieces from holy sites and museums with contemporary works. With artefacts from Vatican City, Mecca, the Louvre in Paris and London’s Victoria & Albert Museum expected to feature, the 2025 biennale is a sure sign that Saudi Arabia’s investment in its cultural calendar is paying off.
Beyond the Headlines
IN PRINT / BREAKING THE ICE
Finding true escape in the Arctic Circle
In Norway’s remote Lofoten archipelago, residents of a once-sleepy fishing village are weathering the chill with warm hospitality. Monocle travels deep into the Arctic Circle to visit Nusfjord, a beautiful nook in the world’s second-longest coastline.
To read the full article, pick up a copy of Monocle’sOctober issue, which is available online and on newsstands now.
Monocle Radio / The Stack
Kiosk culture
This week on ‘The Stack’ we speak with Arman Naféei on his new kiosk at the heart of Hollywood’s Sunset Boulevard, Kiosk-o-thèque, a clever mix of gallery, bookshop and podcast studio. Plus: how can a food magazine cover the upcoming US elections? Jamila Robinson from ‘Bon Appétit’ tells us how.