In the age of the untouchable strongman, Europe is forced to indulge its autocrats
There has never been a better time to be an autocrat. Just ask Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. His slide away from democracy first attracted opprobrium from Western allies about a decade ago. This shift accelerated following the jailing of journalists and political opponents, the manipulation of elections and wars against Kurdish groups – actions that were criticised by leaders such as former German chancellor Angela Merkel. When his ministers tried to hold political rallies in European countries, they were blocked. The US imposed sanctions over his purchase of a Russian missile defence system and the EU did so over his naval aggressions against Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean.
No more. Erdogan’s authoritarianism has continued to grow – but he now faces little criticism. When the elected mayor of Istanbul and Erdogan’s biggest political rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, was arrested in March on falsified corruption charges, the EU’s response was limited to statements expressing “deep concern” – hardly a stinging rebuke. As the Turkish government accused İmamoğlu of spying for the British state, UK prime minister Keir Starmer met Erdoğan in Ankara, hoping to secure new trade deals. And, when prosecutors announced that they were seeking a 2,352-year prison sentence for İmamoğlu, the response from the West was silence.
Then there is Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, who is now approaching his 16th year in power. Like Erdoğan, he has disrupted Hungary’s independent media, taken over state institutions and cracked down on Pride marches and refugee rights. Orbán, like Erdoğan, is trying to criminalise the mayor of Budapest, Gergely Karácsony, who has become a leading opposition figure. And he also maintains friendly relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, despite Hungary being an EU and Nato member. Brussels condemns and occasionally threatens action against Orbán – but after years of doing so with no action taken, it is no wonder that he takes little notice.
Part of the reason that autocrats such as Erdoğan and Orbán now operate with near impunity is that Putin’s threats against the West have elevated their status. Turkey, in particular, occupies a bulwark position for Nato and Erdoğan has established himself as one of only a handful of leaders who can bring Russia and Ukraine together at the negotiating table. Turkey’s defence industry and army, the second largest in Nato, are vital to the alliance as it seeks to rearm. Hungary, though far smaller and less strategically important, occupies an important geopolitical space as one of the former Soviet satellite countries that turned westward after Moscow’s rule collapsed. The loss of either nation would represent a major blow for the West and a major victory for Putin.
Just as important is the US’s own democratic backsliding and the president’s appreciation for strongmen counterparts. Under Barack Obama or even Joe Biden, the US was at the forefront of upholding democratic values, even if only on paper. Now the pretence is up. Trump has signalled that he will lift the sanctions blocking Turkey from receiving Nato’s new-generation fighter jets, however the Russian S400 system that led to the sanctions in the first place currently remains on Turkish soil. Trump has repeatedly praised both Erdoğan and Orbán, even mirroring the latter’s immigration policies. As the US president’s commitment to European security wanes, the EU and Nato become even more reliant on the autocrats in their midst. In the short term, that is pragmatic. The threat that Putin poses to Europe requires unity among the members of its two key alliances. In the long term, however, the continent’s ever-faltering democracies will pay the price.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent. For more insight and analysis, subscribe to Monocle today.
