Why Montenegro is the small but mighty future of the European Union

What are the chances of Montenegro becoming the first new EU member state since 2013? With an official population of about 630,000, it wouldn’t be Europe’s tiniest – though it would be smaller than every other nation except Malta. Nonetheless, senior EU figures are keen to complete accession talks by the end of this year. “If we finish in 2026 with the technical part of the negotiations, then in 2028 we could get the 28th member of the EU,” the European commissioner for enlargement, Marta Kos, told the Bled Strategic Forum last September.

This is in keeping with prime minister Milojko Spajic’s vision of his country as one “that makes the EU richer”. The usual concern of existing EU member states is that expansion to the less economically developed nations east of the continent might affect the fortunes of those already in the bloc. But in this analysis, Montenegro’s size works in its favour. What the EU would be gaining, after all, is a rare example of an ethnically diverse country that boasts harmonious internal relations. The largest part of the population identifies as Montenegrin – but they are collectively outnumbered by a combination of Serbs, Bosniaks and other ethnic groups. Before Spajic and his centrist Europe Now! party took power in 2023, the prime minister was Dritan Abazovic, an ethnic Albanian.

The economy, meanwhile, grew by more than 3 per cent over the past two years, while the country’s main port, Bar, is also vital for Montenegro’s landlocked neighbours, particularly Serbia – and the railway line to Belgrade is one of the world’s most spectacular. The vertiginous Mala Rijeka viaduct across the Moraca river canyon is Europe’s highest railway bridge, showcasing the austere charms of the mountainous landscape.

Natural beauty is the country’s greatest asset, with the peaks continuing all the way to the coast, where the Adriatic glitters and tourism is big business – accounting for more than a quarter of total GDP. Locals like to boast that they can ski in the morning and take a dip in the sea after lunch. Alternatively, you can enjoy the catch of the day at the Adriatic’s longest beach, the appropriately named Velika Plaza (“long beach”).

Financial opportunities abound – especially with the government set to introduce visa restrictions for Russians, who have previously been the country’s largest investors. As they sell up, buyers from Turkey, the US and the UAE are moving in.

Beyond property and tourism, low taxes, a well-educated workforce and potential for sustainable energy are considerable attractions. And after work, it’s time to tango. The mountain town of Kolasin switches from skiing to Latin dance in the summer, with its long-running tango camp. For those with two left feet, a thriving contemporary art scene – boosted considerably by Russian exiles – offers a different kind of culture. Or there’s viniculture: vranac is Montenegro’s indigenous grape and, when produced by Plantaze at Europe’s largest single vineyard, Cemovsko Polje, makes for a bold glass of red. When Montenegro’s EU membership is confirmed, expect it to flow freely.