Poland’s presidential election was meant to showcase European unity – instead, it empowered the far-right
Karol Nawrocki’s victory in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday has shaken Europe. A historian by training with no previous political experience, he narrowly won the second round of the election with 50.9 per cent of the vote. The win signals trouble for the country and its European partners. Backed by Maga Republicans and blessed by Donald Trump, Poland’s new president has promised to use his constitutional powers to veto any legislation coming from the desk of the country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk. In the short term, this could render Poland ungovernable as the new appointee clashes with ministers over everything from ambassadorial and judicial appointments to infrastructure bills.
Tusk increasingly looks like a lame duck and could be forced into a snap election as early as next spring. The liberal-leftist coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 is unlikely to hold and the country is at risk of returning to the conservative rule of the Law and Justice party, with the far-right Confederation party in tow.
To anyone who has visited Poland in recent years, that might come as a shock. The country has been in the throes of a manufacturing boom, with a ballooning middle class and Nato’s third-largest standing army, and was well on its way to becoming a new centre of economic and political gravity on the continent.
Yet all of this has clearly failed to cut through with voters and Nawrocki’s triumph risks pushing Poland away from Europe’s liberal mainstream. All major foreign-policy projects, including a bilateral partnership treaty with France, will likely hit a wall, as well as the pivot to establish a continental defence industry that is less reliant on the US. Tusk might continue to represent the pro-Ukrainian coalition in Europe but his allies will no longer be able to count on Poland’s backing. On the campaign trail, Nawrocki signed a declaration stating that he would never allow Ukraine to join Nato. This should be Poland’s moment to shine but this election has dulled its lustre. The European centre ground has taken another hit – and might not hold.
Mazzini is a journalist and regular Monocle contributor who is based in Poland. For more on Poland’s election – particularly on how it stopped election meddling with a digital umbrella – click here.
