Denmark’s politics is all a bit chaotic right now – but Danes like it that way

Following last week’s general elections, Danish lawmakers are locked in the routine negotiations that come with forming a coalition government. The closed-door talks are led by the kongelig undersøger or “royal investigator”, which sounds like a great pitch for a new detective series but is actually the party leader appointed by the king after receiving the most combined backing from other parties. Fans of the TV show Borgen will be familiar with the protocol. 

In the run-up to last Tuesday’s election, wily old stager and current foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, put himself forward for the role. Løkke, as he is known, recently rose to global prominence after his celebratory cigarette outside the White House following talks with the US government over Greenland in January. But he is also a former prime minister, once leader of Venstre (Denmark’s main centre-right party) and currently leading his own party Moderaterne (The Moderates). Løkke’s move was met with much eye-rolling from rival leaders familiar with his political machinations. The role of kongelig undersøger instead went to prime minister Mette Frederiksen, leader of the Social Democrats, which, against expectations, only won 38 seats. It’s the party’s worst election result in more than a century.

Frederiksen’s outgoing government had been an unholy alliance – “across the middle”, as it was called – with former deadly rivals, Venstre, and Løkke’s Moderaterne as the sandwich filling. Venstre has been so wounded by being in power with her that its popularity plummeted to an all-time low. There is little chance that it would seek a coalition with the prime minister again as that would likely be terminal.

There are now 12 parties in parliament, most of them with 10 to 20 MPs. A total of 90 is needed to form a majority, which is more difficult than it has been in the past, largely because Løkke intentionally broke the traditional red- versus blue-block division in Danish politics when he formed Moderaterne, blowing the whole negotiation process wide open. 

Trying to get these politicians to form a majority makes cat-herding look like a relaxing mindfulness exercise. The challenge is not helped by some of the deep enmities festering among the party leaders. Both heads of the far-right parties, Dansk Folkeparti (the Danish People’s Party) and Danmarksdemokraterne (Denmark’s Democrats), have refused to form a government with Løkke. The aversion is not so much political as personal. Løkke, on the other hand, wants nothing to do with the far-left Enhedslisten (the Red Green Alliance). 

That leaves us with the first round of talks involving (take a deep breath, folks): the Social Democrats, the resurgent Socialistisk Folkeparti (Green Left or, literally the Socialist People’s Party), the Konservatives (Conservatives) and Radikale (the Radicals, a centre-left party, not really that radical) and, of course, Løkke. Despite losing two seats, he still, somehow, finds himself as the kingmaker, with the 14 deciding seats in parliament. Rather optimistically, Venstre, Enhedslisten and the far-left Alternativet have also been invited, for now at least. 

Presented with such a melange, only a deeply foolish man would risk making a prediction. So here’s mine: Denmark will end up with a minority government led by Frederiksen that will rely on far-left and moderate right-wing parties for support on an ad hoc basis. The country has been here before. In fact, Danes seem to quite enjoy the sport of it all – to the extent that some media outlets are currently offering popular “build your own majority” online games. And though it is perhaps not the ideal basis on which to move forward in such tumultuous times, this is, above all, a pragmatic country. 

For now, Denmark must await the white smoke from Løkke’s pipe to herald a new government. 

Michael Booth is Monocle’s Copenhagen correspondent. 

Further reading: 
–Martin Krasnik is the newspaper veteran restoring trust in the media with Denmark’s most resilient title

– Should Denmark take over the Shetland Islands?

– Denmark has never had it so good. So why are its voters so unhappy?