The way that poker is played today is light years from how it was done in the days of the Wild West and gambling in saloons. I have had a lot of success playing cards but 99 per cent of the decisions that I make are detailed mental calculations based on game theory – not the result of quick wits and intuition. Whether at the poker table or the negotiating table, if you fly by the seat of your pants, you will get crushed.

I learned early on that in poker you need to bluff. A lot. Bluffing is a crucial strategy, as much in cards as in negotiations. Studying game theory was the key to learning how to do it well. It’s how I figured out the best way to play certain combinations of cards to get results.

Once I had grasped the theory, I realised that it wasn’t really “bluffing” as I’d thought of it at all. I was only ever making the correct plays in response to the evolving situation on the table. That discovery was very liberating for me. There’s nothing wrong with getting caught out with a bluff either. It’s all part of the game.

My doctorate was about the art of decision-making in moments of uncertainty and I worked with collaborators on Wall Street to better understand the pressures of making complex decisions in high-risk conditions in financial markets. I came to understand that high-stakes poker offers a good metaphor for life: it teaches you how to take calculated risks in everyday settings, how to think through probabilities and work out the value of those risks correctly. Above all, poker also trains you in how to deal with emotions, which is crucial if you want to be a winning player. It’s the perfect learning environment because, unlike in everyday life, you get immediate feedback on your decisions.

The lessons of poker can apply far beyond the gaming tables, whether it’s about something innocuous such as choosing which restaurant to go to for dinner or about a big, consequential life decision regarding your health. At the core, it’s all about what kinds of risks are worth taking and which aren’t. I would never fly in a helicopter, for instance, or ride a motorcycle: I have poker to thank for that because examining probabilities has now become second nature to me.

The poker skill set is helpful in trying to manage financial risk because you become better at making and executing decisions in the moment. You have to hone your ability to recognise when you’re “on tilt”, as we poker players say, which is another way of describing when you start playing poorly because your emotions have got the better of you. This is when your decision-making suffers.

These skills are more crucial than ever. To navigate risky decision-making in the current political and economic climate, I would suggest doing as much work as you can ahead of time: mock up a system in which you write down all of the possible factors that you can think of that might shape the outcome of a decision. Don’t just do this exercise mentally: put pen to paper and run through the situation in a notebook because – take it from me – otherwise you will lie to yourself. Assign probabilities and certainty scores as best and as honestly as you can. Have an open, accurate framework that you can then go back to after you make the decision and evaluate yourself.

How did you do? Did you consider all of the right factors and weight them correctly? Were those probabilities accurate? If not, how can you adjust, adapt and do better in future? My approach might sound overly cautious but it has proved successful for me. You don’t need a poker player to tell you that nothing in life is ever totally certain. So you need to hedge some of the time. And my most important lesson learned from years of personal thought, academic research and professional poker? Never, ever bet the house.

Konnikova is a professional poker player and the author of ‘The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win’, published by Penguin Press.
As told to Gregory Scruggs.