The Agenda: Affairs

New York’s seafood fans and Icelandic hoteliers can both expect to feel an effect now that Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, has an international airport. Larger planes, such as Air Greenland’s Airbus a330-800 , can now fly to the southwest coast of the self-governing territory, which – despite Donald Trump’s recent bluster – is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Previously, travellers to Nuuk had to stop, often overnight, at Keflavík in Iceland or at Kangerlussuaq, the former US air base in Greenland. Twice weekly flights to New York (a mere four hours away) with United Airlines, and to Copenhagen three times a week with sas, are scheduled for take-off this year.

This being Greenland, wider geopolitical factors have played a part in the new dkk2.5bn (€340m) airport, the country’s largest-ever infrastructure project (which will open shortly before another airport at Ilulissat, 500km north of Nuuk). In 2018 a Chinese construction company had expressed an interest in building the airport but the Danish government stepped in with partial funding and as guarantor on a loan.

The airport is likely to have a significant effect on the country’s fishing industry, which is hoping for an export boost from sending fresh produce to New York, and on tourism: visitor numbers are expected to almost double to 105,000 during the summer. Nuuk’s location is, however, more vulnerable to the weather than Kangerlussuaq, so visitors might still have to enjoy the occasional overnight stay in the departure lounge.

In the basket: Four Boeing e-7 Wedgetail early warning and control aircraft

Who’s buying: South Korea

Who’s selling: The US

Price: $4.9bn (€4.7bn)

Delivery date: tbc

For obvious reasons, South Korea spends big on defence – $45.2bn (€43bn) in 2024, which is projected to swell to $54.7bn (€52bn) by 2029. Even amid that largesse, this is a significant purchase. The e-7, based on the 737 airframe, is an upgrade on Boeing’s venerable e-3 Sentry, replacing the e-3’s revolving roof-mounted radar dome with a rectangular monolith with superior capabilities. The Northrop Grumman-made sensor can furnish a constant picture of target movements, rather than intermittent glimpses as the radar rotates. The e-7 is also operated by the US, UK, Australia and Turkey. South Korea already flies four e-7s and will be hoping that this doubling of the complement will bolster its ability to keep eyes on its volatile northern neighbour.

On 24 February, Ukraine will observe the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Vladimir Putin’s mooted 72-hour lightning conquest of Kyiv has deviated somewhat from schedule. In less deranged times, a European democracy menaced by Moscow might have welcomed the inauguration of a Republican president: Ronald Reagan did not stand before the Brandenburg Gate in 1987 and say “Mr Gorbachev, re: this wall, whatever.” But Ukraine cannot make any assumptions of such support where Donald Trump is concerned. Given his desire to force a swift resolution, Kyiv – and the rest of Europe – needs to start thinking about the best possible outcome that could be wrought from the present circumstances.

The vastly preferable conclusion to hostilities remains a complete collapse of Russian lines and/or a change of leadership in the Kremlin, prompting an end to this entire monstrous folly, as well as a richly deserved reckoning for Putin. But many more Ukrainian lives could be lost – and much more of its allies’ money spent – waiting for this to occur. However, if the imperative is to work with things as they are, there are some grounds for cautious optimism. The parameters of a ceasefire deal are not difficult to imagine. Russia would keep, more or less, what it holds but at a cost of hundreds of thousands of needless casualties, billions of squandered dollars, the reserves of whatever international respect it might previously have enjoyed and its president’s dwindling travel options, circumscribed as they now are by an icc arrest warrant. Nevertheless, few voices in Russia would dare dispute Putin’s claim of a tremendous victory.

The rest of Ukraine could edge towards the EU, though probably not into Nato. The model might be akin to post-1945 Germany, split between a democratic, progressive West – host to a hefty foreign military presence – and a depleted East, held hostage by Moscow. In the short term, this would at least end Ukraine’s horrendous suffering. In the long term, given that there is no record of people enjoying life under Russian dominion, we might be able to look forward to the day when the people of occupied Ukraine pull down whatever statues Russia cares to put up. — L

Andrew Mueller is the host of ‘The Foreign Desk’ on Monocle Radio.