Upping the ante
The downing of a Russian fighter jet by a Turkish F-16 yesterday morning was met by a fierce riposte from Russian president Vladimir Putin, but it won’t necessarily provoke a military response. In recent days Nato allies and Russia have both appeared to be united in their desire to attack Isis (though some Western capitals are still wary of Russia’s true intentions in Syria). That will remain the priority, regardless of what will hopefully be just an isolated incident. In the coming days, expect all sides to do their best to dampen tensions with a combination of bland, diplomatic statements and promises of full (ie long) investigations. The situation is complicated but not necessarily catastrophic.