Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Moderate shake-up
An impeachment inquiry might be soaking up all the oxygen in the US but two other striking political items have made the news in the past few days. The first: in the race to be the Democratic presidential candidate, Pete Buttigieg is a whopping 10 per cent ahead of more experienced rivals Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, according to a poll of voters in Iowa. The telegenic 37-year-old is the mayor of South Bend, Indiana. As you can read in issue 127 of Monocle, the Iowa caucus is the first in a series of state-by-state elections to choose the party’s nominee to face Donald Trump next year. Needless to say, this is a momentous shift.
The second item also concerns the Democratic race: Barack Obama has weighed in for the first time. Without naming names, he made an unambiguous plea for moderation. “This is still a country that is less revolutionary than it is interested in improvement,” he said on Friday. It was an extraordinary intervention that included not-so-subtle digs at left-wing candidates like Warren and Sanders and praise for moderates such as Biden and Buttigieg. But Obama has a point. In the Trump era, most Democrats favour a return to normality over a hard lurch to the left. The Iowa poll found that 63 per cent of voters would prefer a candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump rather than a candidate who supports their positions.
The paradox is this: voters prefer moderation over risk when it comes to ideas but, when it comes to candidates, they value an outsider more than a veteran. And that means that Obama’s best hope for moderation might come in the form of the inexperienced but refreshing Buttigieg – even over Biden, his safe but ageing former vice-president.