Opinion / Fernando Pacheco
Too close for comfort
Brazil’s presidential election will head to a run-off vote after last Sunday’s first-round results showed that the race between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is tighter than polling had suggested. According to the final numbers before Brazilians headed to the ballot box, Lula had a chance to reach the 50 per cent threshold to win the election in the first round. While he did come first, with a sizeable 48.43 per cent, Bolsonaro had a surprisingly strong showing (43.20 per cent).
That was a shock to pollsters, who were expecting voters to roundly reject the Bolsonaro years. In the event, it’s clear that many Brazilians still feel very much aligned with the incumbent. He received a boost from electoral segments such as evangelicals and the more agricultural states, whose economies will have benefitted from his controversial relaxation of environmental laws around logging in the Amazon and other forests.
Lula is still likely to win the run-off, albeit by a smaller margin. If he does, he will have to deal with Brazil’s increasingly right-wing Congress. A sign of how much things have changed since he left office came from the Senate, where Bolsonaro’s ideological allies, including former ministers Damares Alves and Marcos Pontes, exceeded expectations and won seats.
Brazil is a polarised country and the divide is concerning going into what will be an ugly second-round campaign. Left-wing and centrist voters might find themselves sobered by Sunday’s results but it’s important not to forget that Lula’s comeback is remarkable. Despite a history of corruption allegations, the two-time former president is the only figure capable of beating Bolsonaro. If Brazil is going to arrest its rising economic inequality and protect its rainforests, he’s an obvious, if imperfect, choice.
Fernando Augusto Pacheco is a senior correspondent for Monocle 24.