Opinion / James Chambers
Known unknowns
Excitement is building ahead of the 20th National Congress, a twice-a-decade meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, which begins in Beijing this weekend. The event has been eagerly anticipated as it marks the moment when China could finally relax its strict coronavirus rules.
Travel agencies are rumoured to be working on promotional campaigns while straw-clutching tourists have been spotting a few positive signs in the official tea leaves, from Xi Jinping’s trip to Central Asia in September to his appearance without a mask at the recent National Day celebrations in Beijing. If China’s leader is indeed preparing the public for a change of direction, the party’s propaganda machine will have to be creative. Xi’s commitment to “zero Covid” has remained steadfast until this week’s congress. He has repeatedly staked his reputation on an unwinnable war against a virus, even while city lockdowns and border closures have stifled the economy and caused financial hardship around the country.
Of all of the decisions of his tenure so far – from the good to the bad to the downright heinous – Xi’s fixation on zero Covid is one of the most difficult to understand and perhaps the only policy that has significantly cost him support among the Chinese public. What was he thinking? Was it hubris? Faking it until he could make it? The truth is that we will never know. Zero Covid will disappear and we will be none the wiser. With no elections in China, little independent media and no real market for political autobiographies, what Xi Jinping thinks is no clearer now than when he first assumed office a decade ago.
James Chambers is Monocle’s Asia editor.