Opinion / Christopher Cermak
Crisis talks
This week marks the first in-person meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington since the pandemic struck. It’s also the first time that I’ve attended in more than 10 years. I can’t help feeling a sense of déjà vu. A decade ago, the talk was of a full-blown Eurozone collapse and the legacy of the 2008 global financial crisis; this year, conversations have focused on the war in Ukraine and surging inflation. Yet the principle is the same: a world in crisis.
The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (pictured), warned, “The worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.” Also, if Europe thinks that this year’s winter energy crunch will be bad, just wait for 2023. But there’s good news if you look for it. Tobias Adrian, in charge of monitoring financial stability at the IMF, ranked the current situation just below that of a global financial crisis. In other words, the risk is there but we haven’t succumbed yet. This is in part thanks to lessons learned from previous disasters. Banks today are healthier, while central bankers and regulators are keeping a closer eye on signs of danger.
In 2008 and 2012, the atmosphere at these meetings was rather chaotic. Policymakers were in uncharted territory (former US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, awarded the Nobel economics prize this week, deserves credit for his crisis-fighting actions). This year the challenges feel equally tremendous but there is less panic. The global economy is better prepared and more resilient. As you stare in shock at your heating bill this winter, that’s at least one thing to be thankful for.
Christopher Cermak is Monocle’s Washington correspondent. Listen to Monocle 24 for reports from the IMF/World Bank annual meetings this week.