Opinion / Hannah Lucinda Smith
On the offensive
Turkish tanks are lining up along Syria’s border and Recep Tayyip Erdogan is promising a new ground war – his fourth in six years in northern Syria. He is wagering that Russia and the US won’t stop him.
Turkey began artillery, drone and air strikes inside Kurdish-controlled Syria nine days ago in retaliation for a bombing in Istanbul that killed six people. Erdogan has blamed that attack on Kurdish militants and ordered the offensive on an area controlled by the YPG (a Syrian Kurdish faction that controls much of the border region). Kurdish activists say that dozens of civilians have already been killed and non-military targets, including energy infrastructure, hit. Erdogan has vowed that the operation “will not be limited to an air war”.
Two powers could stand in his way: Russia, which has controlled most of Syria’s airspace since 2015, and the US, which partnered with the YPG to fight Isis and still has troops in northeastern Syria. But both countries are distracted. The war in Ukraine has monopolised the Russian military’s capability and left Putin dependent on Turkey as an outlet for the Kremlin’s investments and energy exports. The US needs Turkey to approve Sweden and Finland’s accession to Nato.
Neither Russia nor the US can push back too hard. Russia has asked the YPG to withdraw from its military positions along the border and is offering Turkey a green light for a smaller-scale operation. The US has offered only weak condemnation of the violence.
Erdogan looks set to get his way but he is shredding his reputation with the West. With presidential elections in Turkey next year, it is a price that he seems willing to pay: a foreign military operation framed as a fight against terrorism could boost him at the polls. How his foreign relations might look in the future is a secondary concern.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent.