As long as the US is the world’s pre-eminent economic and military power, its presidential election will always be consequential to international affairs. This year, however, is probably the most geopolitically significant contest since the end of the Second World War. Many, especially those in Europe, believe it is a question of Republican isolationism vs Democratic interventionism; that a victory for Donald Trump will see a diminishment of the Atlantic alliance, both materially and politically; while a triumph for Kamala Harris will mean continuity, or even a strengthening of institutions such as Nato.
When it comes to geopolitics, the Harris-Trump face-off is one of predictability vs chaos. A Harris White House will cleave close to Washington’s traditional allies and redouble efforts to supply Ukraine in its war against the Russian invader. The foreign policy of a second Trump administration is, like the man himself, far more difficult to predict. Will he follow through on his threat to withdraw the US from Nato? I’m doubtful even he knows the answer to that question. One thing Trump will almost definitely do is double down on economic protectionism – he has recently claimed that he loves the word “tariff”. This will almost certainly spark a trade war with the EU. But can the bloc be surprised when it is flirting with such measures itself?
The thing that is often lost amid the hand-wringing over Trump in European capitals is that there is no shortage of world leaders who might even prefer him to win. These include Israel, India and Saudi Arabia – all allies of the UK and EU. Indeed, though many commentators speak of Washington’s waning influence, the fact that the world is so polarised over this election shows how significant the US remains as both a lodestar for our collective political disintegration and a canvas onto which billions project their hopes and fears. Whoever wins next week, one thing we can say for sure is that the world won’t be the same.
Alexis Self is Monocle’s foreign editor. For more opinion, analysis and insight
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