Karol Nawrocki’s victory in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday has shaken Europe. A historian by training with no previous political experience, he narrowly won the second round of the election with 50.9 per cent of the vote. The win signals trouble for the country and its European partners. Backed by Maga Republicans and blessed by Donald Trump, Poland’s new president has promised to use his constitutional powers to veto any legislation coming from the desk of the country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk. In the short term, this could render Poland ungovernable as the new appointee clashes with ministers over everything from ambassadorial and judicial appointments to infrastructure bills. 

Tusk increasingly looks like a lame duck and could be forced into a snap election as early as next spring. The liberal-leftist coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 is unlikely to hold and the country is at risk of returning to the conservative rule of the Law and Justice party, with the far-right Confederation party in tow. 
 
To anyone who has visited Poland in recent years, that might come as a shock. The country has been in the throes of a manufacturing boom, with a ballooning middle class and Nato’s third-largest standing army, and was well on its way to becoming a new centre of economic and political gravity on the continent. 
 
Yet all of this has clearly failed to cut through with voters and Nawrocki’s triumph risks pushing Poland away from Europe’s liberal mainstream. All major foreign-policy projects, including a bilateral partnership treaty with France, will likely hit a wall, as well as the pivot to establish a continental defence industry that is less reliant on the US. Tusk might continue to represent the pro-Ukrainian coalition in Europe but his allies will no longer be able to count on Poland’s backing. On the campaign trail, Nawrocki signed a declaration stating that he would never allow Ukraine to join Nato. This should be Poland’s moment to shine but this election has dulled its lustre. The European centre ground has taken another hit – and might not hold.
 
Mazzini is a journalist and regular Monocle contributor who is based in Poland. For more on Poland’s election – particularly on how it stopped election meddling with a digital umbrella – click here.

The initial round of Poland’s presidential election on 18 May will be the country’s first under a novel new defence: a cyber umbrella. Speaking to reporters in January, Poland’s digital-affairs minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, insisted that the country was ready to repel the type of digital interference that has plagued elections worldwide. Disinformation and orchestrated social-media campaigns to push certain candidates or causes into the public remit have become an increasing concern for democracies. In late 2024 suspected Russian meddling led to the annulment of Romania’s presidential elections. 

“We are flooded with threats of electoral interference,” says Aleksandra Wójtowicz, an analyst focusing on digitalisation and new technologies at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs. “The intention is that this umbrella is going to keep us safe.” 

Certain programmes have already allowed the Polish public to report incidents of misinformation in the run-up to elections. But the new initiative, part of the country’s wider efforts to spend more than €2bn on cybersecurity defence, helps members of the public to identify and combat cybercrime. Run by Poland’s leading data-networks and security operator, Nask, it provides a website where civilians can read about the key election dates and facts, learn to identify digital threats and flag suspicious behaviour.

Wójtowicz is sanguine about eliminating disinformation. “The information sphere is so large that it is difficult for institutions to keep track of,” she says. “Though these projects might not prevent people from feeling scared, they create a feeling of control. With higher public involvement, we are becoming more secure.” 

It has got neighbours talking too. Estonia’s minister of justice and digital affairs, Liisa Pakosta, is optimistic about the initiative. “I fully endorse Poland’s ‘cyber umbrella’,” she says. “It aligns closely with Estonia’s own experience as we face constant cyber attacks.” 

The lesson? Bracing for bad weather and hunkering down under a digital umbrella is one thing but democracies also need to let citizens know how to deal with risks, as well as participate in the pushback. “It is important for the public to know that they can report things that are illegal,” says Wójtowicz. “Whether it’s noticing phishing or encountering a weird link, it’s about people being made aware that their role matters.”