What might we expect from 2025? Here are five hints from Europe
Where were you this week? Did you spend your days trotting around the showrooms of Paris looking at all the fine menswear and accessories that will be hitting shops in August? Or were you up in Davos daintily avoiding ice patches in a pair of hastily purchased pony-skin Kandahar boots? Or perhaps you were occupied elsewhere while reflecting on the official installation of a new-ish US president and what the change in DC will mean for global affairs? For my part, I spent the week in various corners of Europe meeting business leaders and owners to listen, ask questions and analyse the general climate as we near the close of the first month of 2025.
Lisbon
Monday afternoon and I’m visiting a modernist house outside the city. I’m thinking it would make a lovely compound for a future Monocle retreat and I’m talking to the estate agent about the mood of the market. Americans are buying up a storm and there seems to be no let up in their interest in putting down roots in Portugal. You will recall that many Americans said they would flee the country under the first Trump presidency but as the inauguration was getting under way on the other side of the Atlantic an alternative story was taking shape. “Many Americans have been leaving the US because their cities aren’t working, they’re worried about security and they don’t like what is being taught in their schools,” I was told. “I wonder whether the change of government and stricter policies will mean that more Americans will feel safer and less keen to move?” Much has been made of a liberal exodus because of Trump but perhaps it’s worth reassessing the numbers to see if the real flight to safer pastures was under Biden’s watch. One for the analysts.
Paris
Tuesday lunchtime and I’m in a private dining room peering out across the rooftops towards Place Vendôme. The gentleman opposite runs a luxury business of serious scale and he’s feeling cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Conditions are tough in some parts of Asia but Japan is performing well and for him it’s clear that the US will be the outright leader in his sector. “We now need to see how Europe reacts, what companies and governments do and how they will seize this optimism,” he says. “This is a time to get back to centre, to avoid the radical cultural shifts we saw over the past few years and not be swayed by political agendas. We are running businesses and we need to deliver.”
On the streets below, the fashion crowds are coming and going and darting to shows and appointments. At the traffic lights I stand beside a group of young men from the US in blouson jackets, billowing denim trousers and all have tiny handbags over their shoulders. It’s a look that’s worked in the contained world of K-pop and has been pushed in the West but it suddenly looks rather dated.
Zürich
Friday afternoon on the 15.38 train to Chur and I bump into a Norwegian friend in the dining car. He’s seated with a colleague from Oslo and they ask me to join them. My friend has been at The World Economic Forum and he’s in a sunny mood. The first thing he tells me is that by Christmas I will be among the first of a fortunate few to receive the new mobile phone he’s been developing for the millions around the world who’ve been craving a physical keyboard. “It’s coming and there is so much excitement around it,” he says. The conversation then shifts to discussions around Europe and specifically Norway. “Our country is a good example of the poor direction the continent is heading in. A climate has been created where it’s impossible to do business and thrive and no one is on the side of the people actually creating jobs,” adds the colleague. “We need to snap out of it but I wonder if it’s too late.” As we roll along to Landquart, we hit upon a theme. There is plenty of capital out there for new ideas but legislation makes execution complex and all the capital in the world won’t make a business flourish if you can’t employ people who have passion and know-how.
Silvaplana
Friday evening in a restaurant known for fondue to join a post-Davos gathering for dinner. It’s a relaxed group from various pockets of business and government. Former US secretary of state John Kerry is in one corner, the founder of a major cruise line is holding court in the middle of the room and I’m chatting to a Turkish gentleman about the positives of rejection. “You could say that Turkey being kicked out of the F-35 fighter programme was a positive for the aerospace industry as it jolted so many companies into action to create new solutions,” he says. “If you’d asked me three years ago about my view on my country it was dim but now I feel that we have a chance – in part because of resilience, perseverance and Turkish people’s hard work. We’re well positioned compared to much of Europe when it comes to manufacturing but also offering services.” He’s right. Turkey has much to fix but if Europe doesn’t get back into the groove of putting in hours and celebrating the positives of the workplace we will see a collapse of all the freedoms that we currently cherish.
St Moritz
Saturday morning at my new favourite hangout (Belmont) and I’m having a coffee and catching up with a friend who runs a sizeable financial-services group. We had a Davos debrief the night before and today we’re talking about the general swing to the right and the coming shift in priorities. He relays the story of a family member in education in Germany who has seen their school move the boys’ bathroom to the basement in order to create a transgender bathroom on the main floor of a school that has no transgender students. “Given all that’s happening in Germany and going wrong you would think that they would have more important priorities, no? And we wonder why people are frustrated and vote for the far right when the basics such as personal security are not in focus,” he added.
After a decade of initiatives and policies that have been implemented at the expense of social harmony, prosperity and growth, my friend is advocating for people to speak up and call out the measures that make zero sense for industry, stifle society, create ghettos and remove any sense of personal responsibility.
