What next for Qatar after Israeli strikes? A diplomatic tightrope
The Qatar bombing of a Hamas meeting in Doha signals a major shift in Israel’s strategy, raising questions over Gulf security, Qatar’s mediator role and the region’s fragile balance.
For the past decade or so, one Israeli red line has seemed inviolate. The country would not strike Hamas officials on Gulf soil, particularly in capitals effectively shielded by US interests. That line crumbled yesterday when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed a strike on a Hamas meeting in Doha, Qatar.
What once felt improbable now feels like part of a slow recalibration, encouraged in part by the Trump administration’s more permissive attitude towards Israel. At the heart of this is a cold calculation: Israel appears willing to risk straining relations with the Gulf states to press Hamas further into a corner. It also confirms that Benjamin Netanyahu is not interested in mediation. If anything, by hitting Doha, Israel has signalled that it would rather eliminate interlocutors than negotiate with them.
The collateral effect is a fresh layer of insecurity for Qatar. Mediation has long been Doha’s calling card, from Gaza ceasefire talks to Taliban negotiations. But if this role now carries the risk of drawing foreign strikes onto its soil, the incentives might fade quickly. At the time of writing, no Qatari citizens are thought to have been harmed yesterday, nor in June’s Iranian missile attack. Yet the notion that Doha can be struck with impunity is unsettling. Why here and not Abu Dhabi or Dubai? Part of the answer lies in perception; Israel does not view Qatar as a military threat, and assumes restraint. Iran, for its part, likely tipped Doha off, tempering any sharp response.
Other Gulf states were quick to condemn yesterday’s strikes. The UAE described them as “blatant and cowardly”, while Saudi Arabia branded Israel’s actions as “criminal violations”. For Qatar the dilemma is acute. It can double down on ideology, remain host to Hamas and keep trying to mediate. Or it can follow the UAE’s more pragmatic path: distance itself from Hamas, cultivate discreet friendships with both Israel and Iran, and focus on protecting its own prosperity. Ultimately, this will be a test of how ideological Qatar truly is; whether it clings to its role as patron and mediator or quietly chooses pragmatism in an effort to safeguard its territorial integrity.
Inzamam Rashid is Monocle’s Gulf correspondent. For more on yesterday’s strikes tune in to ‘The Globalist’ on Monocle Radio.
