In a period of geopolitical turbulence, F-35 sales are in a holding pattern
Despite a strengthening European defence sector, the F-35 remains top of governments’ wishlists.
Piloting an F-35 over the Nevada desert, your Monocle correspondent attempts a barrel roll. It proves surprisingly easy, so she does a few more, prompting the former Marine Corps pilot overseeing the flight to nudge the aircraft in the direction of the enemy. Finger on the trigger, I follow his directions and gently press the red button, sending a few small dots flying across the screen towards another vague target in the distance.
Considering that I’m in the seat of a simulator of one of the most advanced fighter jets in the world, it is a little lacking in drama. But there is no lack of tension when it comes to the F-35’s position in geopolitics today. With a raft of new orders from Europe and controversy over potential sales elsewhere, the symbol of US air superiority is having a moment.
In September, Lockheed Martin handed over Germany’s first F-35A Lightning II, with 34 more to come. A week later, Finland welcomed its first of 64 F-35As. Poland, meanwhile, got the first delivery of its F-35s in May.
“We are getting very strong international demand,” says James King, director of the US Navy F-35C programme at Lockheed Martin, adding that the company can currently produce 156 of the aircraft each year. “That is what the Joint Program Office wants us to execute. We obviously believe that we could do more. We would like to do more but that’s going to take a consistent demand signal to increase that capacity.”
It’s no surprise that Europe is clamouring for the best US military technology. With Russia’s assault on Ukraine in its fifth year, concerns are growing about spillover into the rest of Europe. Germany’s intelligence chief warned this week that the country risked getting into a “violent conflict” with Russia, with a drone attack on Leipzig airport in August raising tensions.
Last month, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk cautioned that Moscow could be planning drone and missile strikes on European nations supporting Ukraine. An uptick in F-35 orders is understandable, given that the plane is considered to be one of the most advanced stealth fighters in the skies right now, with more than 1,355 operational around the globe.
Speaking at the Lockheed Martin Global Vision Center in Arlington, Virginia, senior vice-president for global business development and strategy Dan Tenney referred to the countries that they sell their F-35s to as “allies”. But who those allies are is not up to Lockheed Martin: the sale of F-35s is strictly controlled by the US government. A country wishing to acquire the fighters must do so via an application to the State Department and face a lengthy vetting and approval process.
The F-35A Lightning II was developed by the US with financial assistance from seven other nations in the Joint Strike Fighter programme – the UK, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Denmark and Norway. Sales to 12 other countries have been approved. Turkey was initially part of the Joint Strike Fighter scheme but it was removed in 2019 after purchasing Russian-made air defences. But Trump has suggested that Turkey might yet receive the jets, telling reporters at July’s Nato summit that he had “no concerns” over the Russian systems.
The State Department also approved a potential $24.3bn (€21.7bn) sale of 48 F-35s to Saudi Arabia last month. Right now, Israel is the only nation in the Middle East with F-35s, a strategic decision by the US to ensure that it has a military advantage in the region. This potential sale has raised concern in Tel Aviv as well as in some corners of Washington. Saudi Arabia has conducted joint military exercises with China, igniting fears that Beijing could gain access to the elite US technology. The US Congress can review the sale and that process is currently ongoing.
Lockheed Martin executives would not address questions on who gets the F-35s, given that it’s a government decision. But with ongoing security concerns in Europe, and a US administration searching for allies in a region that has been thrown into turmoil by the country’s assault on Iran, King might soon get his wish for more orders.
