Will the left’s last-minute fightback be enough to keep Lula in power – and the Brazilian far right out?

The morning after the first round of the Brazilian elections, held on 4 October, much of the country awoke in a state of disbelief. At first dazed and then outraged, liberals and left-wingers digested the scale of the right and far-right parties’ success. Conservatives, meanwhile, were in awe, so unprecedented and unexpected was the magnitude of their achievement.

In congressional and gubernatorial races across the country, right-wing candidates chalked up resounding victories, paving the way for an utterly transformed political landscape when the winners take office early next year. But it was the presidential race that truly confounded observers. Despite trailing behind in most opinion polls for the entire campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro – the eldest son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro – took an almost two-point lead over the incumbent leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, setting up a run-off between the two men this Sunday

The impact was immediate. Markets rallied on the expectation of a return to right-wing governance; meanwhile, previously hedging politicians and some Supreme Court judges quickly moved to Bolsonaro’s camp. For Lula, now 80 years old and serving his third non-consecutive term, it looked as though the game was up.

Then the fightback began. In the weeks since the first-round results, the political left has been galvanised. With a sense of urgency not seen earlier in the campaign, hundreds of thousands of Lula supporters rallied at events in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and elsewhere. Volunteers, both young and old, have been campaigning on the streets. Lula stickers are suddenly everywhere. On social media – a key battlefield – Lula’s Partido dos Trabalhadores has belatedly begun to get its act together, pushing the octogenarian president to produce the kind of selfie videos that have long been an effective tool of the Brazilian right.

The new style of campaigning has been complemented by some hurried political manoeuvring. On 15 October – just in time for the run-off and following much persuasion by Lula – Congress abolished the six-day working week for millions of formal workers in sectors such as retail and services. They will soon be entitled to two days off per week with no reduction in wages. Lula has also promised new cash-handout programmes and free public transport at weekends.

The incumbent’s efforts are having an effect. Opinion polls show the gap between the contenders narrowing, with the two men now in a technical tie. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, seems to recognise that the race is not yet run and has stepped up his public appearances and media engagements in the final stretch. It’s likely, however, that the latter – who markets himself as a “vaccinated” version of his more radical father – is the more confident. After all, polling has consistently underestimated his support and, in the modern era, no Brazilian presidential candidate who has led the first round has gone on to lose the run-off.

Lula, meanwhile, suffers from broad anti-incumbency sentiment, with voters clearly looking for something different amid widespread concerns about the cost of living and crime. The left-wing leader has been a fixture of Brazilian politics for almost half a century. On Sunday, voters will decide whether that is long enough.