Can Trump get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords? Not just yet
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) landed in Washington yesterday and president Trump needs the prince’s visit to be a success. The Epstein drama and the attendant battle with former Maga ally Marjorie Taylor Greene is dragging down Trump’s approval ratings and undermining his dominance of the GOP. While there are many potential gains for Trump during this visit, it is MBS who holds the strongest hand in negotiations, particularly those relating to Israel.
MBS’s arrival provides the president with the pomp of a royal delegation – along with the potential for the kind of foreign deal-making that Trump loves most. About six months ago, the president visited Riyadh, where he and the Saudi leader penned an unprecedented $142bn (€122bn) weapons deal. This visit could be worth far more. This week, Trump confirmed plans for the sale of a fleet of F-35 fighter-jets to Saudi Arabia – a model that the US has, until now, only sold to Israel among the Middle Eastern nations. Selling these jets to the Saudis recalibrates the region’s delicate detente and erodes Israel’s qualitative airborne edge.
Trump believes that the return on investment could be substantial. It’s no secret that he is obsessed with securing a Nobel Peace Prize and a Saudi-Israel recognition agreement might get him there, especially if it came with substantive buy-in from Riyadh to help reconstruct Gaza. For the White House, balancing the region’s military capabilities is seen as a prerequisite to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. But before even considering that, MBS has a long wish list for Washington, including a mutual defence treaty and nuclear co-operation agreement. In this regard, recognising Israel seems like a fruitful carrot to dangle in front of a wanting White House.
Saudi resistance to the accords has always hinged on the desire to see Israel recognise a Palestinian state before embarking on normalisation. Moreover, Saudi Arabia doesn’t need to make peace with Israel. The two nations are already quietly co-operating on various defence and intelligence efforts. Like other Arab nations, from Jordan to the UAE, Saudi Arabia also aided the US and Israel during their 12-day war with Iran earlier this year.
Should Saudi Arabia and Israel formally work together, both stand poised to benefit. Take the example of trade between Israel and the UAE, which surged from more than $50m (€43m) in 2020 – when both became charter Abraham Accords members – to more than $3.3bn (€2.8bn) in 2024. And despite the Gaza war, year-over-year growth has continued. Sectors such as alternative energy and AI are where both nations could find meaningful collaborations: Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in diversifying its economy beyond oil and Israel – aka, the “Start-Up Nation” – would welcome Riyadh’s trillions in petro-dollar reserves to continue its development in such lucrative sectors.
Just over a month after he gathered world leaders to celebrate his “ending” the war in Gaza, Trump needs to get his groove back. Beyond a Palestinian state – or those coveted F-35s – this is the kind of deal-making that Trump does well. It’s also the type of deal-making that wins prizes.
David Kaufman is a New York-based writer and editor. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
