Europe’s draft debate: Should the continent reintroduce conscription?
Ukraine’s struggles to maintain troop levels have highlighted Europe’s own recruitment shortfalls. The continent must work to resolve its lack of manpower.
The speed with which the Trump administration has withdrawn US security commitments to Europe, at least verbally, has been a wake-up call. But even before Trump’s re-election, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine had prompted European nations to boost defence spending, acquire advanced weaponry and enhance industrial production. Yet one pressing challenge remains now as then: a lack of numbers. Ukraine’s struggles to maintain troop levels in a prolonged conflict have highlighted Europe’s recruitment issues. Nato planners currently assume that, in the event of a Russian attack on a European member and the subsequent activation of Article 5, the 100,000 US soldiers stationed on the continent would be swiftly reinforced by up to 200,000 more. Without this commitment, Europe might require an extra 300,000 troops under unified command as well as a short-term annual defence spending increase of at least €250bn to deter Russian aggression. But how will they get those troops?
Many European countries abandoned mandatory military service following the end of the Cold War. In recent years, debates around a return to conscription have reignited across the Old Continent. Since the start of Trump 2.0, these have increased in fervour. Supporters argue it could help to build military reserves, strengthen civil-military relations and enhance resilience in times of crisis. Northern and Eastern European countries are often cited as models, as many Baltic and Nordic nations retained some form of mandatory service after the USSR collapsed or reintroduced it in response to the growing Russian threat. But despite its potential benefits, conscription is far from a universal solution. Each country must navigate distinct political, demographic and strategic circumstances.
For democracies, public sentiment remains a hurdle. In 2024 a Gallup poll revealed that only 32 per cent of EU citizens would be willing to fight for their country in the event of war. Opposition was strongest among younger age groups: 59 per cent of Germans aged 18 to 29 rejected the idea in a poll commissioned by the magazine Stern. According to a YouGov survey from 2024, resistance is particularly high in the UK, with a third of respondents aged 18 to 40 stating that they would refuse military service even in the event of invasion. Much of this reflects the problem of “strategic cacophony”. Public attitudes towards conscription are strongly influenced by perceptions of security: the more severe the threat, the greater the public support. In Latvia and Estonia, for instance, initial resistance to conscription shifted significantly after February 2022. The former has now reintroduced it while the latter has widened compulsory military service.
On the other hand, some Nato military officials have voiced apprehension about the effectiveness of large-scale conscription programmes. These concerns stem primarily from the challenge of properly integrating conscripts into professional military outfits, which have had access to superior training and equipment. While these issues have not deterred a few European countries, such as Croatia and Serbia, from pushing ahead with programmes reinstating some form of mandatory service, others such as Germany have proposed alternative policies designed to address the manpower issue. Some are straightforward, such as making professional military service more attractive through financial and other incentives. Others are more innovative, including efforts to expand voluntary service and integrate reservists into roles beyond conventional operations, such as critical infrastructure protection and maintenance, or cybersecurity. Many of these non-mandatory options can also be seen as compromises. Politicians of different stripes are reluctant to push their populations into “prewar mode”, fearing how they might react.
Ultimately, whichever path a given European country chooses to pursue, it must do so with the understanding that the US security guarantee can no longer be taken for granted. Conscription is merely one of the means to an end; what is clear is that ensuring long-term security will require a much broader societal shift. As Ukraine has demonstrated – and many Europeans are yet to realise – national defence is not solely the responsibility of professional armies. In times of existential threat, citizens will be required to protect and sustain the war effort.
Grgic is Monocle’s security correspondent.
