After Venezuela, who’s next? Maduro’s capture revives Latin American fears of US intervention
After US forces captured Nicolás Maduro, members of the Venezuelan diaspora in Brazil gathered in central São Paulo to celebrate the downfall of a man widely seen as corrupt, brutal and dictatorial. The occasion was joined by many Brazilians, particularly those from the right, who have long lamented the degradation of once-wealthy Venezuela under Maduro and his socialist predecessor, Hugo Chávez.
The impromptu celebrations, however, were at odds with the prevailing political climate across much of Latin America, where leaders expressed shock over the White House’s casual readiness to intervene in the region. Not only was the operation against Maduro an affront to national sovereignty but it raised the spectre of military conflict in a region that – despite its many other problems – has for decades been peaceful at the nation-state level.
In Brazil, president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva condemned the intervention as crossing an “unacceptable line” and the “first step toward a world of violence, chaos and instability.” But it was Gabriel Boric, the outgoing leader in Chile, who addressed the elephant in the room: “Today, it’s Venezuela. Tomorrow, it could be anyone.” He pointed out that the US’s blatant coveting of strategic resources is hardly confined to Venezuela. In this case, it is oil. But in Chile, it might be copper, which is essential for AI infrastructure. In Brazil, it could be rare earths, critical for next-generation military technologies. In Paraguay, it might be access to bountiful hydroelectric power for data centres and other digital infrastructure. The list goes on.
The US has a long history of interference in Latin American politics, including the support of brutal Cold War-era military dictatorships in Chile, Argentina, Brazil and elsewhere. The return of gunboat diplomacy and military adventurism in Venezuela is, for many Latin American leaders, a return toward a dark past. And US officials have done little to assuage anyone in the region of such concerns. A day after the Venezuela strikes, Trump told reporters that he liked the idea of a military operation against Colombia, calling left-wing president Gustavo Petro a “sick man”. The US has also openly threatened Cuba and made veiled threats against Mexico. And if the intention of the White House was not clear enough, a cartoon image posted to an X account linked to the US president showed Trump as a colossus standing astride North and South America, brandishing a large baton.
While the prospect of fresh military strikes might currently preoccupy Latin American leaders, another potential avenue for US adventurism in the hemisphere is upcoming elections. This year, Brazil, Peru and Colombia will head to the polls and leaders there will need to be on guard for signs of electoral interference. Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay, as well as the incoming administration in Chile, are already sympathetic to the Trump White House. If Brazil, Peru and Colombia swing in that direction this year – either with or without interference – Washington will be one step closer to its dreams of overt US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere.
Bryan Harris is a journalist based in São Paulo. You can read more of his pieces here. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
