When the next crisis comes, Trump will rue not attending this year’s G20 summit
Like Louvre jewellery or DB Cooper, the US president provokes headlines even in his absence. His recent nonappearance at three seminal events has drawn particular attention: the funeral of former vice-president Dick Cheney, the Cop30 climate talks in Belém and the G20 summit in Johannesburg. The first two of these were to be expected but the latter was more surprising. The reason for this decision was ostensibly over allegations that South Africa is mistreating its white population. It’s a choice that he might yet come to regret.
The G20 summit has convened annually since 2008, a year in which Washington hosted during one of then-president George W Bush’s last major appearances in office. That summit, which I covered as a young reporter in the US capital, was a coming-out party for the economic bloc. Remarkably, it was held just weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the meeting of nations to resolve a global emergency felt palpably optimistic. It marked the height of multilateralism and a turning point in the financial crisis, as investors became convinced that governments would serve as a backstop to prevent the worst economic calamity.
This is how multilateralism is supposed to work. It might not always function in the good times but nations should at least be able to come together in the bad. What’s also special about 2008 is that Bush was brave enough to call on world leaders for support – helping the US get out of a mess of its own making. A sort of mea culpa from the world’s superpower. Would Trump ever do the same?
Now the world is hurtling towards another possible bubble: an inflationary one brought on in part by US tariffs, a financial one brought on by AI and a governmental one caused by too much debt. Andrew Ross Sorkin, the acclaimed financial columnist, CNBC host and author of Too Big To Fail, tells Monocle that he’s convinced another bubble is building. “How could it not?”, given our history, he asks. And it’s the last of the three causes that is most concerning to him. Government debt levels are unsustainable, with investors operating under the assumption that the debt of major nations such as the US and France will continue to be bought, merely because they have been in the past. What if confidence simply evaporates? It can happen quickly, as it did in 2008 and 1929, arguably the first financial crisis of a globalised economy and the subject of Sorkin’s latest book.
This brings us back to the G20: this economic bloc of the world’s most powerful nations was elevated to its current status for precisely these moments. In 2008, they co-ordinated after the fact but the whole point of the G20 was to prevent the next crisis. If and when the next bubble bursts, president Trump might yet have to call on the world’s largest economies to come to his rescue. But if he can’t do them the service of attending, will the nation’s other leaders heed that call when it comes?
Chris Cermak is Monocle’s senior news editor. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
