A Brazilian trend forecaster on why real-world research always beats algorithms
Iza Dezon, the CEO of strategic trend consultancy Dezon, on why on-the-ground-research is invaluable to accurate market predictions.
We often say that there are 100 Brazils inside Brazil. It’s just one country but, as it’s roughly the same size as Europe, there’s a pluralism of consumer habits. Then there’s the fact that we have a more mixed history than other large nations. This means that Brazil has every hair type in the world, every body shape and every skin tone. This is what makes it so fascinating from a consumer-research perspective.
But how can you know the consumer when Brazilians are so varied? I have been working in trend forecasting for 15 years, learning how to anticipate what consumers are yet to vocalise. We’re looking for what’s changing in life and what we’re consuming culturally that will spark new desires. There are no algorithms as precise as trend-assisted research.
Take wellness for example. It’s a huge thing and always trending but now we’re also talking about wellness burnout. Gen Z have realised that there will be no supplement that can buy them a house. Nobody can keep up with the intensity of our product-driven society, nobody has the discipline to take all the supplements and put on all the creams. Younger people are less indulgent, less liberal with their image online and going out less in general. Many of them are even shying away from the digital space. So we’re always trying to look for that new twist and shift. And I’m going to be very controversial here by saying that I think the future of my industry is to keep ourselves as analogic as possible.
Another peculiarity of Brazilians is that we are novelty seekers. We are curious. We want to try new things, new flavours, new textures. Globally, the health and beauty industries invest the most in novel trends because the market is eager to know the next big thing.
Though online might seem the obvious place for trending material, the key aspect of consumer awareness is paying attention to what’s around us by getting our heads out of our phones. Otherwise, we end up missing the fundamentals of talking to people, going places and observing. The same is true of artificial intelligence. If I ask the best AI to predict trends, it will show me what’s already out there. The invaluable component of trend forecasting is your own repertoire of connections, references, memories and tastes that you have built throughout your life. There is no short cut for that.
As told to Monocle writer and researcher Blake Matich.
