Update 8 May: Robert Prevost has been announced as the new (and first American) Pope.

With the papal conclave that will select the next pontiff under way, all eyes are on nations with large Catholic populations and the cardinals who could succeed the late Pope Francis. Here we get the view from the Philippines, Ghana, Brazil and Italy, four countries where the next Vicar of Christ could potentially come from. 

The Philippines
The liberal pick: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
By Richard Heydarian, academic and columnist

As many as six million Filipinos showed up for Pope Francis’s visit to the Philippines in 2015, a world record that reflects the profundity of the country’s devotion to Catholicism. This is one of the world’s most devout nations and there’s an informal public understanding among Catholics here that it would be disrespectful to talk about succession during the nine-day grieving period for Pope Francis. Deep down, however, many Filipinos hope that the next pontiff will bring the same spirit of openness and inclusiveness to the Vatican. There are three Filipino cardinals heading into the conclave; among them, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is seen as the most progressive. He has made strong statements about discrimination and prejudice against the LGBTQ community and those who are going through divorce. But during my visit to the Vatican, I sensed that Italy’s Pietro Parolin is the favourite among cardinals who are invested in the continuity of Pope Francis’s legacy. Still, history tells us that early favourites are not necessarily the one who is chosen.

Ghana
The foreign-affairs pick: Cardinal Peter Turkson
By Joseph Appiah-Dolphyne, journalist and press officer

Pope Francis was revered among Catholics, looked up to as an inspiration and credited with growing the faith in Ghana and across Africa. While it’s right to say that Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson would be a more conservative choice, humility is one trait that he shares with the late Argentine. Born one of 10 children in the country’s Western Region, Turkson grew up in a far-from-affluent family. Before becoming a cardinal, he cut his diplomatic teeth as chairman of Ghana’s National Peace Council, an independent advisory committee. After being promoted to the cardinalate, he served as the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace until 2017 and was sent as an envoy to South Sudan by Pope Francis to aid peace negotiations. Electing the first African pontiff would be a show of faith in the continent. In practical terms, Turkson could also continue the late pope’s diplomatic push.

Brazil
The popularity pick: Cardinal Sérgio da Rocha
By Fernando Augusto Pacheco, Monocle’s senior foreign correspondent

There are more Catholics in Brazil than in any other country. The Church’s imagery and expressions are part of daily life here. Despite this, none of the seven Brazilian cardinals in the conclave are favoured to ascend to the Chair of Saint Peter. Still, the Catholic Church needs Brazil and should certainly consider the popular Cardinal Sérgio da Rocha for the papacy. While one priority for the next pontiff will be to grow the faith in Africa and Asia, an effort to reconnect with Brazilians and Latin America as a whole wouldn’t go amiss. I would wager that, as with Pope Francis, the new Bishop of Rome’s first international trip will take him to the streets of Copacabana.

Italy
The local pick: Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (and more)
By Juliet Linley, journalist and former Vatican correspondent

It has been 47 years since we’ve had an Italian pope and there are several candidates on the cards. When I was in Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi was the popular choice among pilgrims. The progressive cardinal and current Archbishop of Bologna is known for his diplomatic skills and missionary work. He was closely involved with peace-making efforts in Mozambique in the 1990s and recently facilitated prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. 

Cardinal Pietro Parolin is also among the candidates. As Pope Francis’s number two, he will know most of the electors personally, which will give him an edge in the conclave. From a theological perspective, he is neither too traditional nor contemporary, though he opposes same-sex marriage and euthanasia. He might be undone by a controversial secret pact that he arranged between the Vatican and China in 2018. He’s also not quite as charismatic as Francis: diplomatic but maybe a bit too vanilla. 

The other top Italian contender is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, whose name (“dancing pizza”) has attracted attention from people who wouldn’t usually be pope-watchers. Like Francis, he’s open, diplomatic and knows his geopolitics. As Jerusalem’s first cardinal, he has been based in the Middle East for 35 years, supporting interfaith dialogue between Muslims, Jews and Christians, and advocating for peace during the Gaza conflict.

Hear more views from each nation by checking out our Monocle Radio series on The Briefing throughout the papal conclave.