On 24 February, Ukraine will observe the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Vladimir Putin’s mooted 72-hour lightning conquest of Kyiv has deviated somewhat from schedule. In less deranged times, a European democracy menaced by Moscow might have welcomed the inauguration of a Republican president: Ronald Reagan did not stand before the Brandenburg Gate in 1987 and say “Mr Gorbachev, re: this wall, whatever.” But Ukraine cannot make any assumptions of such support where Donald Trump is concerned. Given his desire to force a swift resolution, Kyiv – and the rest of Europe – needs to start thinking about the best possible outcome that could be wrought from the present circumstances.

The vastly preferable conclusion to hostilities remains a complete collapse of Russian lines and/or a change of leadership in the Kremlin, prompting an end to this entire monstrous folly, as well as a richly deserved reckoning for Putin. But many more Ukrainian lives could be lost – and much more of its allies’ money spent – waiting for this to occur. However, if the imperative is to work with things as they are, there are some grounds for cautious optimism. The parameters of a ceasefire deal are not difficult to imagine. Russia would keep, more or less, what it holds but at a cost of hundreds of thousands of needless casualties, billions of squandered dollars, the reserves of whatever international respect it might previously have enjoyed and its president’s dwindling travel options, circumscribed as they now are by an icc arrest warrant. Nevertheless, few voices in Russia would dare dispute Putin’s claim of a tremendous victory.

The rest of Ukraine could edge towards the EU, though probably not into Nato. The model might be akin to post-1945 Germany, split between a democratic, progressive West – host to a hefty foreign military presence – and a depleted East, held hostage by Moscow. In the short term, this would at least end Ukraine’s horrendous suffering. In the long term, given that there is no record of people enjoying life under Russian dominion, we might be able to look forward to the day when the people of occupied Ukraine pull down whatever statues Russia cares to put up. — L

Andrew Mueller is the host of ‘The Foreign Desk’ on Monocle Radio.

In a nondescript industrial park on the outskirts of Canberra, the future of warfare is being redefined. It might be thousands of kilometres from any active conflict but the whirr of movement on the warehouse floor at Electro Optic Systems (EOS) tells its own story. EOS develops and manufactures a range of military and space-related technology but in recent years has become known for one thing: anti-drone systems. Its pre-eminent status in this nascent field has been underlined by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where more than 100 EOS products are in use every day. As drones become cheaper and more deadly, nations around the world are racing to secure technology that can counter the threat, meaning that EOS is suddenly in high demand.

On the factory floor, dozens of anti-drone systems are packaged up ready to be delivered to customers, while others undergo testing to ensure that they can operate continuously in the most challenging of conditions: some are in temperature chambers at a balmy 60c, while others are set to a frosty minus 32c. In the early 2000s, the US was the only military with high-quality drone technology – the Predator unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which was deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. But since then, as the technology has proliferated, its costs have plummeted. “Now it’s an asymmetric form of warfare,” says EOS’s CFO Clive Cuthell, whose thick Scottish accent belies his 30 years in Australia. “You can spend $1,000 on a drone and attack an asset that costs $10m, $100m, even $1bn. You no longer need to spend a fortune to attack high-value targets.”

Dealing with one drone is hard enough but the low cost means that an enemy can now launch 100 or even 1,000 drones at a time. “It’s very difficult to deal with that oversaturation,” says Cuthell. “You can overwhelm almost any defence system.” This is a tactic that was deployed in 2024 by Iran’s air force against Israel. One of EOS’s newer systems, the Slinger, which went on sale in 2023, has seen great success in Ukraine, where 200 are currently deployed in the field, many of which were purchased by Western powers as military aid. Weighing fewer than 400kg, the Slinger can be mounted on the back of a pick-up truck and has a radar and camera system that can detect and neutralise even the smallest drone. Its demonstration video on the EOS website is captioned, “No one kills drones like EOS.”

Most of the company’s anti-drone bestsellers feature “multi-layered” responsive weaponry – meaning that operators have a selection of ways to take UAVs out of the sky. For example, a battlefield anti-drone platform like the Slinger might have a third-party missile system to take down longer-range drones; a built-in laser to “blind” drone sensors; or a chain-gun, which acts as more conventional anti-aircraft artillery. But companies such as EOS are engaged in a literal arms race when it comes to countering drones.

Initially, “soft-kill” mechanisms, such as jammers and spoofers, could easily neutralise UAVs but militaries have adapted them to counter such interference, meaning that “hard-kill” methods, which destroy the devices completely, have become essential. “That provides a strong tailwind for us to commercialise our innovations,” says Cuthell. As he inspects a new order bound for Kyiv, EOS vice-president of international programmes Glenn McPhee, a former Australian army officer, says that he was attracted to the company both for the “cool Australian technology” and “helping Nato soldiers defend themselves”.

EOS began life as an Australian government research institute with a focus on the space sector, including optics and laser technologies. In the 1980s the firm was incorporated as a private company and, in the early 2000s, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Ben Greene, one of its original founders, is a world-leading space physicist who began working in the sector not long after the first moon landing. Today he serves as EOS’s chief innovation officer. Perhaps reflecting its academic origins, EOS has always excelled at research but traditionally had less success on the business side of things. “It was a strong scientific, engineering, military and academic culture that had invented many things – but not commercialised them,” says Cuthell.

The arrival of Andreas Schwer in 2020 signalled a turning point. A bespectacled German with grey hair and a firm but understated manner, Schwer has decades of experience in the space and defence sectors, including at Airbus and Rheinmetall. In 2017 he was asked by Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman to build up his country’s defence sector by taking the helm at Saudi Arabian Military Industries, where he stayed for three years. “When I was working in Saudi, we had selected EOS as the partner for high-energy laser-weapons systems and I had done a deep due diligence,” he says. “I had found out that the company had a huge innovation and intellectual property rights portfolio but is not the best in terms of commercialising it. We wanted to take what was sitting on the shelf in terms of innovation and make real-life products.”

The arrival of new management coincided with significant geopolitical shifts – the Ukraine war, later the conflict in Gaza and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. All have led to a surge of interest in EOS’s products. “Investment in defence by national governments is higher than it has ever been,” says Cuthell. “Defence is an industry where technology really matters. The technological edge can often be decisive in conflict – and we’re at the cutting edge.”

Part of the leadership team’s ambition is to transform EOS into a bigger global enterprise. The firm already has four offices around the world, operates in almost 20 countries and is growing its manufacturing operations in the US and the UAE (where Schwer, who became CEO in July 2022, has a base). In 2024 it opened a laser-innovation centre in Singapore. Schwer hints that increased onshoring requirements and supply-chain concerns mean that joint ventures and localised manufacturing will play a big part in EOS’s future. “Part of the strategy is to become a truly global player,” he says. Canberra is not known as a hi-tech hub but the Australian capital has a strong university sector (EOS sponsors two research chairs) and a large defence industry, with the Australian military’s headquarters just 20 minutes down the road from EOS. The buzz of activity on the factory floor suggests that Schwer’s mission has been a success so far. Revenue to December 2023 was up almost 60 per cent year-on-year; while in the first half of 2024, it has almost doubled again. Schwer insists that the push to take products to market is not coming at the expense of ongoing research. “Research was the core,” he says of EOS’s history. “And it still is.”

EOS’s anti-drone technology has the capability to be fully autonomous, though, for now, many of its customers use human operators. The company’s systems can track and identify drones within a 5km radius, drawing on a database of almost 600 drone types constantly updated by a partner firm. The technology can identify the location and model of the drone, and whether it is friend or foe – an increasingly important function as both sides in many conflicts deploy their own UAVs. But armed forces are not the only users of this technology. Drones increasingly pose a domestic risk – whether deployed by local agitators or international terror groups. EOS systems are being sought out by organisers of major events. “That has started and will become the standard in the future,” says Schwer. He is tight-lipped about specific civilian deployments. “That’s classified.”

Space also remains a major focus. Not far from the factory, EOS shares the Mount Stromlo Observatory with the Australian National University. The firm’s laser technology can track objects in orbit down to the size of a coin, an important capability as the planet’s stratosphere becomes more cluttered with debris. “There is nobody, outside the US, that has this kind of highest accuracy tracking of objects in space,” says Schwer. “So one major application is that we track debris and provide anti-collision warnings to any kind of satellite operator. With our latest evolutions in technology, we can also move space debris, actively avoiding collisions.” Such technology also has military application. “In the long run, war will be decided in space,” he adds. Schwer pulls up a photo on his phone showing a bright-green laser beaming into the night sky. “This is not Photoshop,” he says. “This is how we use laser systems to track objects in space.” Though separate arms of the business, the anti-drone and space sectors are deeply interconnected. The success of the former builds on EOS’s decades of research in monitoring objects outside Earth’s atmosphere. “We can track any object in space,” says Schwer. “So it’s easy to downscale this sensor technology, to see further and better than anyone else on the battlefield.”

It is a long way from Canberra to Kyiv. But the cutting-edge technology being manufactured at EOS is playing an essential role as Ukraine seeks to defend itself. The conflict in the country has demonstrated in real-time how critical drones and anti-drone technology are to modern warfare – and is setting the tone for conflicts to come. Schwer was one of the first foreign business executives to travel to Kyiv after the war began. He vividly remembers his initial visit: crossing the Polish border at night, in the snow, on an arduous rail journey to meet Ukrainian officials. “Those times were challenging,” he says. “We spent many nights in the bunkers. Many meetings had to be interrupted because of missile alarms.” He laughs and says that the trip was almost derailed by difficulties securing travel insurance. “It was super expensive,” he says. But for EOS, the demonstration of commitment to supplying Ukraine with market-leading defence technology was worth every cent. “They will never forget about your engagement and commitment in the early days,” he adds. “You came to them when you were exposing yourself to significant risk.”

Schwer and his team have been back many times since – he estimates that every second month an EOS representative is in Kyiv, or often even closer to the frontlines in the east of Ukraine. “We’ve established very close contact to the leaders, to the commanders, to the officers at the frontline, to get first-hand experience and have those lessons learned introduced to our ongoing development programmes,” says Schwer. That information feeds directly into product development: EOS has simplified systems to make them more user-friendly in the field. “We are learning day by day, week by week.” The EOS boss cites the example of the Abrams tanks donated to Ukraine by the Americans. “The US has lost more than half of its donated Abrams in Ukraine by drone attacks,” Schwer says. The remaining tanks have been removed from the battlefield, awaiting an upgrade; EOS systems are being trialled for possible integration. Sometimes videos appear on social-media platform Telegram of EOS weapons protecting key Ukrainian infrastructure from Russian drone attacks. As soldiers cheer in the background, half a world away, Schwer’s team is energised. “That makes us proud.”

EOS’s other hot products
Part of EOS’s recent success has been built on the integration of its different systems – the anti-drone technology can integrate remote weapons systems, which draw on the success of laser products.

Remote weapon systems
EOS’s range of remote weapon systems combine heavy firepower with advanced surveillance capabilities. These include the R400, a lightweight model that can be mounted on trucks, tanks and ships; the mid-range R600; and the heavy-duty R800, which has a cannon and machine gun.

Lasers
In September, EOS announced it was finalising deals for its high-energy-laser weapons systems to two undisclosed international clients, in what is believed to be the first export sale worldwide of a laser weapon at that power domain. “We will be the first mover,” says Schwer. The laser weaponry can engage drones between 200m and 3km away.

Space
EOS has a range of space-related products and services, including satellite laser ranging stations, which track satellites in orbit, and space domain awareness, monitoring objects in space. One EOS brochure describes the technology as “space intelligence for battlefield commanders”.

Valentine’s Day in Hawaii sounds romantic but for bigwigs in the US defence sector, 14 February will be devoted to one thing: facing up to Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. The second iteration of the Honolulu Defense Forum (HDF), which runs from 13 to 14 February and is organised in partnership with the US Indo-Pacific Command and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, will focus on “operationalising urgency” and “promoting regional security” from the Bering Strait to Cape Horn.

“With intensifying security challenges, such as those posed by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the South China Sea, both European and Indo-Pacific theatres face pressing security needs,” says Kimberly Lehn, senior director of the HDF. “What we offer is an event focused on strategic policy questions and solutions. It’s more intimate than bigger conferences, such as the Shangri-La Dialogue. Some 250 members of government will be in attendance, as well as military policymakers, planners, analysts, think-tanks and venture capital.” Keynote speakers include Washington operators such as Robert J Wittman, the US representative for Virginia, and Jedidiah P Royal, an Indo-Pacific security expert at the Department of Defense.

On the commercial side of things, HDF’s sponsors have included traditional defence names including Lockheed Martin, as well as relatively new tech operators, such as Palantir Technologies and Amazon Web Services. The latter two’s presence indicates the important role that technology companies play in the defence space, as well as the rewards on offer from the most recent military budget presented to Congress, which included a request for $895bn (€820bn) in funding for 2025.

HDF will take place at Waikiki Beach, which has become a byword for relaxation. Yet the watchword will be preparedness, as there are many in the US and among its allies who believe that the Pentagon has been too slow to counter China’s military posturing across the Indo-Pacific (Beijing now possesses the world’s largest maritime fighting force, operating 234 warships to the US’s 219). All eyes will be on Waikiki this Valentine’s Day for a signal of Washington’s renewed intent.

I don’t want to be a victim. But over the years of war in my country, I have realised that this isn’t possible without knowing how to defend myself and my family. If I couldn’t fire a gun or fight off an attacker in close combat here, I would be defenceless. I’m writing this from Kyiv before returning to the Ukrainian front line. I have realised that if feminism has taught us anything, it’s that women should never become easy prey – a lesson that feels all too relevant when Russian shells are exploding around me and my team in our trenches in the country’s east. 

War returned to Ukraine in 2014. I became a mother the year before, just as Ukraine’s pro-European revolution was kicking into action. Pro-democracy protesters flooded the streets, calling for EU integration and an end to the country’s cosy ties with kleptocratic Russia, which was pulling us ever closer, back into its empire. Then, as it invaded, first annexing Crimea in the south before sending in its troops to occupy our eastern cities, towns and villages, I came to understand two things clearly. First, that our army desperately needed soldiers as open, state-sanctioned violence had made a comeback and was advancing towards our homes. Second, it wasn’t just men but also women who now had to learn how to protect themselves.

I have always respected the Israeli model of conscription. From a Ukrainian perspective, with all of the violence that our population has suffered in the past 100 years, it makes sense to have a level of basic military training for both men and women. We helped Europe to overcome the Nazis in the 20th century but Russia’s imperial evil was never defeated in the battles of the Second World War. And we are fighting its desire to annihilate our country now. Ukraine’s entire population has to be more than just willing to protect itself in the abstract: it also has to be trained to do so effectively in the real world. 

Women can play an important role in defence. I first joined the Ukrainian army in 2019 as a paramedic; within a year, I signed up as a regular contract soldier. Soon I became a combat medic and took on reconnaissance in the Ukraine Marine Corps battalion, mastering how to pilot drones. In this time, I have fought alongside both men and women. I can confidently say that those women on the front lines today are, in my opinion, on average more motivated and determined than the men. 

Of course, part of this is simply down to the fact that those I fought beside chose to enter the army – there is currently no conscription of women in Ukraine. Around the world, 21 countries include women in their conscription programmes, including three in Europe (Norway, Sweden and Denmark). But I have also witnessed how much better women can be at dealing with situations that men might shy away from. Take blood, for example – we see a lot of it on the battlefield, unfortunately. But perhaps because women encounter much more of it in our civilian lives, many are less scared to deal with it.

Women are also often more likely to be open about how they are feeling. We start conversations that men might otherwise avoid. This allows us to deal with stress more effectively. With rates of ptsd in Ukrainian society rising, it is paramount that we are all open about our experiences, both mental and physical. Some qualities that have been traditionally deigned feminine actually serve to complement many aspects of a soldier’s experience. 

There are also so many women in the Ukrainian army who inspire both me and my male colleagues to keep fighting as part of a more skilful, modern army. Take my friend, Olena Bilozerska, for example. A writer and journalist in her civilian life, Bilozerska trained to be a sniper in 2014. She wrote about her experience as a servicewoman in her memoir Diary of an Illegal Soldier, which was published in 2020. And on the battlefield, her skill has been lauded by people all over the world, including US soldiers – a video of her working just 200 metres from the occupiers was published on YouTube and ended up going viral. 

So, how might female conscription work? Perhaps some imagine that if women are included in the draft, society would face a crisis with no one left behind to look after children and the elderly. But there are always a certain number of people who would never be called up. Carers and single mothers would be taken off the list automatically in the same way that Ukrainian men with more than three children are today. We would need to be practical.

But leaving aside the issue of female conscription, I believe that we are leaving a large resource untapped. Many women who I have spoken to say that they support the idea of being called up and doing their bit. If they were to receive that letter in the post, they would gladly go. They are keen to help but they need the legitimacy of the state to justify their presence in units that might otherwise treat them with scepticism or as outliers.

Doing so would also bring a few lazy stereotypes into the crosshairs. We could show once and for all that women can be as strong and brave as men, if we only let them demonstrate their potential and legitimise their participation. It would be a golden opportunity to put patriarchal stereotypes to bed and impart a greater confidence in a truly equal society. 

The threat of war might seem far away for many Western readers living in comfortable, safe countries. But my country’s situation and our overnight transition from a hopeful European democracy to a nation under violent attack has proved the old Latin saying right: if you want peace, prepare for war. And don’t leave us women behind.