Gulf states put their trust in Pakistan as US security guarantees falter
The Israeli strike on Doha that killed six people earlier this month has jolted the Gulf into a new phase of defensive manoeuvring. In the hours and days since, capitals across the region have scrambled to co-ordinate intelligence, announce joint air-defence drills and accelerate plans for shared missile-warning systems. On the surface, the Gulf looks like a united front. Dig a little deeper, however, and we see a picture of states urgently covering themselves, diversifying their bets and sending subtle signals abroad.
Nowhere is this clearer than in Riyadh. This week, Saudi Arabia unveiled its long-mooted defence pact with Pakistan. According to my sources within Pakistan’s government, the deal was hurried through in the wake of the Doha attack. On paper, it binds Islamabad to Riyadh: an attack on Saudi Arabia, by extension, is treated as an attack on Pakistan. Given the latter’s status as a nuclear power, the implications of the deal should not be underestimated.
As one senior Middle East analyst put it to me, “This is as close as Riyadh has come to hinting at a nuclear umbrella without openly saying so.” For the Saudis, it is both a reassurance to their citizens and a warning to Washington. It says: “We have options.” For years, the Gulf has rested on the assumption that the US will always be there as its guarantor. But as faith in American constancy frays over Gaza and shifting priorities towards Asia, Gulf leaders feel compelled to hedge their bets.
Qatar, meanwhile, has been quick to strengthen its own links with Islamabad. Doha’s instinct has always been to avoid isolation. Increased activity with Pakistan gives it access to a credible military partner, while signalling resilience after the strike. Yet at the Gulf Co-operation Council level, the reality is more fragmented. Joint communiqués speak of co-operation but the speed at which Riyadh finalised a deal with Islamabad shows how much each state still prefers its own safety net.
The broader question hanging over these moves is the nuclear one. No Gulf state is openly chasing a bomb but the idea is hard to ignore. With Israel’s undeclared arsenal and Iran’s enrichment programme, the region’s leaders increasingly view a nuclear deterrent as essential. Riyadh’s embrace of Pakistan, even without formal nuclear guarantees, brings this closer to the surface.
The Israeli strike has underscored just how vulnerable small, wealthy states can be. Air-defence drills and intelligence-sharing are necessary steps but they are not sufficient when adversaries have advanced arsenals – hence the search for deeper partnerships and closer nuclear ties. The hurried Saudi-Pakistani pact is not merely symbolic. It is a reminder that Gulf capitals will not sit quietly beneath the American umbrella forever. If the US will not guarantee their security in the way that it once did, they will find others who will. As one seasoned observer told me, “That should worry Washington more than any Israeli strike.”
Inzamam Rashid is Monocle’s Gulf correspondent. For more from the region, read about the Russian restaurants taking over Dubai or what the Gulf states can teach us about design and technology. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
