Erdogan bolsters Turkey’s position as an indispensable international mediator
Two very different meetings are expected to take place today in two distant Turkish cities, both aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. Nato foreign ministers will meet in Antalya, while Russian and Ukrainian leaders will be sitting face to face in Istanbul for their first such encounter since the start of the war – provided Vladimir Putin shows up. Donald Trump has been pushing for the latter meeting and might even zip over from his whistle-stop tour of the Gulf to support Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with hosting duties.
This rush of Turkish-led diplomacy burnishes Erdogan’s claim that Turkey can be a key mediating power. The country has a unique position when it comes to the Ukraine conflict: as a Nato member, it officially backs Kyiv but Erdogan has also maintained a close personal relationship with Putin, evidenced by his refusal to back Western sanctions on Russia. This has allowed Turkey to sit in the middle of sensitive talks, whether on hostage swaps or Black Sea grain deals. Erdogan wants to keep Turkey as neutral as possible. In a pre-summit meeting with Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary general, he again insisted that the military alliance should not be involved in the war.
The ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has further strengthened Ankara’s hand. Turkey was a consistent backer of the political and armed opposition to Assad, and the first country to send officials to meet with the transitional government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. That makes Turkey a key link to Damascus as Western countries – including the US yesterday – begin to lift sanctions and evaluate how to deal with the new administration. Turkey has also taken part in efforts to end the resurgence of violence in Kashmir by using its diplomatic clout with Pakistan, a close ally.
As a result of all of this, Turkey is now indispensable to Europe as it tries to navigate a rapidly changing Middle East. That’s exactly how Erdogan likes things. It’s less good news for his domestic political rivals, hundreds of whom have been thrown in prison since the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in late March. A decade ago, such crackdowns made Erdogan a near-pariah in Western capitals. Today, autocratic concerns are brushed aside as he takes his seat at the head of the negotiating table.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
