Navigating nuclear proliferation
With China’s accelerated weapons programme and Poland’s military build-up, are we entering a new age of nuclear armament?
Russia’s assault on Ukraine has been an ominous advert for a nuclear deterrent. Moscow felt empowered to launch its rampage in part because Kyiv is not protected by such weapons. Ukraine ceded the Soviet nukes stationed on its territory after gaining independence and, unlike the formerly Soviet Baltic states, it is not under Nato’s nuclear umbrella. Conversely, Russia’s nuclear weapons stopped Ukraine’s allies taking a more direct role in its defence. This two-way demonstration of the efficacy of nuclear deterrence, coupled with recent statements by Donald Trump’s administration, will prompt focused discussions among countries that spent the Atomic Age assuming that American Minutemen, Titans, Tridents and Tomahawks were protecting Berlin, Seoul, Sydney and Toronto as diligently as Washington, Honolulu, Albuquerque and Muskogee.
Several countries could build nuclear weapons and might now begin inching from the theoretical to the practical. Polling in South Korea has shown handy majorities in favour – living next door to a nuclear-armed cult compound that threatens you with obliteration will do that – and that was when the US was assumed to be a reliable ally. If Iran ever tests a functional device, Saudi Arabia will want one too. Poland has indicated a willingness to host American nukes – if the US has lost interest in defending Europe, Poland may prefer to host its own. Turkey, which stores American tactical nuclear bombs at Incirlik airbase, has occasionally sounded interested.
Countries that fear China may also consider their options. Taiwan had a nuclear-weapons programme until the 1980s, before ending it under American pressure. They are obviously a sensitive issue in Japan but former prime minister Shinzo Abe publicly tested the water on the subject. Australia’s mood has shifted towards nuclear energy; nuclear power is a current election issue. If it can’t rely on Washington, Canberra could decide to go it alone.
The more nuclear weapons there are, the greater the danger of rogue actors obtaining them or calamitous misjudgements being made. President Trump has not been wrong to note the costs to America of underpinning a rules-based global order. There are also costs of not doing it.
Mueller is the host of the ‘Foreign Desk’ on Monocle Radio.
