Spain 2026 forecast: You may not agree with Pedro Sánchez but his country continues to take a refreshing stance
One of the things that I get to do as Monocle’s Europe editor at large is compile a mental compendium of how nations on the vieux continent are performing against one another – the doers and the duds. Part of my 2025 involved thinking about how France and Italy had, in many ways, switched positions. France has been racked by debt woes and political indecision and Italy racked by debt woes but proving surprisingly stable politically – something that it hasn’t been used to since the Second World War. As for my 2026? A good chunk of time will be spent pondering Spain.
Spain has consistently and unfairly flown under the radar. The Iberian nation is having a moment – proof that progressive, ethics-based politics has a place, despite the planet’s increasingly nativist turn. For one, Spain has been making strides towards gender parity. While women represent about a third of Italy’s two chambers, they make up almost 43 per cent in Spain, putting it on a heady par with Nordic nations such as Sweden and Finland. What about infrastructure? Spain recently announced that its Madrid to Barcelona line would be upgraded to allow trains to reach 350km/h – speeds normally only achieved by Asian giants.
Then there’s its economic growth, which grew by 3.5 per cent in 2024 and is projected to grow by 2.9 per cent this year (2026 is looking almost as good). Spain’s success is down to sectors such as tourism, services and manufacturing – and another key factor: immigration. The Spanish government has realised that its ageing workforce needs a boost, which is why it has been amending its laws to improve migrant integration. In 2024 the country welcomed 368,000 new arrivals, putting it in the top-five OECD countries in terms of numbers.
So what’s not to love? The problem seems to be that Spain’s left-wing prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, divides opinion. In November thousands of opposition supporters took to the streets in Madrid to call for early elections over a corruption scandal surrounding his Socialist party called the “Caso Koldo” (Koldo Case), involving former transport minister José Luis Ábalos, former adviser Koldo García and former party secretary-general Santos Cerdán, among others.
And yet Sánchez has managed to rise above it all, speaking out against the far right, attempting to explain the dangers of disinformation to the Spanish public and looking to have abortion enshrined in the constitution. He has consistently taken an ethical line on Israel, denouncing what is happening in Gaza as a “genocide”, implementing an arms embargo against the nation and pulling out of the Eurovision song contest in protest at its inclusion. And despite the centre-right PP and the far-right Vox parties waiting in the wings, he refuses to step down – and has even said that he will run for re-election in 2027. Not that it will be easy. Unemployment remains high at more than 10 per cent, there are difficult regional elections coming up in 2026, inflation continues to be a concern and Spain has irked the US over its low defence spending (Politico recently called Sánchez “Nato’s flakiest friend”).
Nevertheless, the point is this: you don’t need to agree with everything that Spain is currently doing. But as a leader of a nation that is increasingly becoming the economic engine room of Europe, Sánchez takes a principle-based line and sticks to it. Whether it comes from a genuine place or is mere expediency almost misses the point: he’s a talented politician.
Ed Stocker is Monocle’s Europe editor at large, based in Milan. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
