Asia 2026 forecast: Vietnam, Malaysia and China lead the way
Here in Thailand, 2026 promises to begin with a bang. The country’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, who is currently in charge of a caretaker government, has called early elections even earlier than expected and February’s vote is likely to produce another cobbled-together coalition. Thailand’s prolonged political uncertainty – along with neighbouring Cambodia’s scam-centre economy and Myanmar’s ongoing civil war – leaves Vietnam and Malaysia as continental Southeast Asia’s standout performers.
Hanoi’s continued rise should come as no surprise but the buzz coming out of Kuala Lumpur is less expected. Malaysia’s prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, has been exemplary on the world stage and is a strong contender for leader of the year. The economy is humming as overdue reforms are protested in public but praised in private by grateful business owners. One for foreign investors to watch, especially those who care about democratic values as well as dollars.
Across the water, the Philippines has taken over the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Nations. The country’s president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, has reinvigorated the US alliance, which should guarantee strong support from Washington over the coming year but could torpedo any hope of progress on issues requiring buy-in from China, especially on the South China Sea. As Marcos Jr’s six-year term enters its final third, mired in a corruption scandal not of his own making, more attention will shift to his friend-turned-foe Sara Duterte. The serving vice-president remains a favourite to move into Malacañang Palace in Metro Manila when the removal vans come for Marcos Jr in 2028, despite her father’s incarceration at The Hague and her own close call with impeachment.
Senator Bam Aquino, the offspring of another former president, is being talked up as a contender by the centre-left. Meanwhile, I was impressed by the Filipino tourism minister, Christina Garcia Frasco, whom we interviewed for The Escapist. Frasco certainly sold me on the far north of the island of Luzon. (I’ll need to fit in a visit around my regular hops between Suvarnabhumi and Hong Kong.)
Speaking of my old patch, Hong Kong continues to defy the naysayers. Its stock market has reclaimed the global IPO crown and the special administrative region’s good fortune looks set to continue next year. Beijing clearly wants Hong Kong to succeed as its international gateway and the big financial-services firms are staffing up again. One of my favourite business stories of the year was about bankers completing their “tour of duty” to Singapore and returning to Hong Kong – surprise, surprise. One headline declared, “The next China is China.”
As India and Indonesia struggle with strongman rule, China’s one-party system marches ahead. The announcement of the next five-year plan in March will reveal which industries and technologies Beijing intends to focus on next. Meanwhile, a visit by Donald Trump in April (if it goes ahead) could result in outpourings of adoration, envy or rage – or a mix of all three. Monocle might even be in Shanghai at the same time. Watch this space.
For me, the real showstopper will come at the end of the year when China hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Shenzhen. By now, most of us know the story of Shenzhen’s rise from a small fishing village on Hong Kong’s doorstep to a towering, technology-rich metropolis but it’ll be a rare opportunity for Western leaders to see it up close. I can already imagine Trump signing a hotel deal, playing a round of golf at Mission Hills and praising Deng Xiaoping as a visionary property developer. As we enter the second quarter of the Asian century, the East’s ascendancy and its leadership are becoming more apparent. And perhaps we should start calling it what it really is: China’s century.
James Chambers is Monocle’s Asia editor. Read about why he’s betting on Bangkok for the future of contemporary art here. Heading to Asia? Consult our online City Guides to Bangkok, Hong Kong, Kyoto and more. You’ll find them at monocle.com.
