Market volatility might concern property developers at Mipim but some are still dreaming big
He might have made his name as a real-estate player but Donald Trump has once again made some attendees nervous at Mipim, the world’s largest event for the sector. Last year they were cautiously readying themselves for his “Liberation Day” and its barrage of trade tariffs. This time everyone from hotel operators to investors are wondering how much the conflict with Iran will affect their businesses – and profits.
“A few weeks ago, preparing for Mipim, we were feeling upbeat: we could see some clarity in the direction of interest rates and debt,” says Anthony Duggan, chair of Knight Frank Europe, one of the world’s biggest independent real-estate consultancies. “But everything that has happened in recent days has just added an air of confusion into the market.”
This industry, however, is used to dealing with life’s ups and downs, economic cycles and even the occasional pandemic. It can sit out short market shocks and seek new opportunities. And Trump, along with his rupturing of the old US-Europe relationship, has had one positive impact.
“The German government has realised that it needs to step into the space created by the US moving away from Europe,” says Duggan. “It’s considering what that looks like from an infrastructure and investment perspective. Is Germany the future of automotive manufacturing? Maybe it isn’t,” he adds. “But some of those automotive sites are now being transformed into defence sites because the skill sets are the same. It has been coming. In the first quarter of this year, Germany will be the top destination for investment capital.”
There are many others at Mipim who are still looking at the world with a sunny (or sunny-ish) outlook. Felicity Black-Roberts, senior vice-president of development for Hyatt EAME, says that tourism oversaturation in places such as Barcelona and Amsterdam is making second and third-tier cities such as Seville increasingly popular with astute travellers. That’s where Hyatt is investing hard, with some 70 projects in the pipeline in her region.
Hubert Rhomberg, the fourth-generation director of his family’s Austrian property business, is excited about the potential of AI to transform development, predicting that drones will be able to record a site’s construction work in real time and detect anywhere that the project is going astray – in costs or time management.
But perhaps the biggest dreamer is Emin Agalarov, an Azerbaijani pop singer and developer who is overseeing the construction of Sea Breeze on the Caspian Sea. He describes the complex as the largest construction site in Europe, which is set to include a new F1 track, casino, luxury hotels and residences. With its gleaming towers, marina and man-made island, it looks as though it has taken inspiration from Dubai. “There’s no need to try to invent a bicycle,” says Agalarov. “My job as the master developer of this project is to find the best-case scenarios and adapt them to my market.” Indeed he’s also opening a ski-resort modelled on Badrutt’s Palace in St Moritz as part of his Mountain Breeze portfolio.
At the end of the interview, we ask Agalarov to recommend one of his songs for us to listen to and he chooses a track that speaks to the long-term – perhaps a good Mipim anthem for 2026. “I have been building Sea Breeze for exactly 20 years and it has been the same amount of time since I released my first album. It’s called ‘Still’. [The song of the same name] is one of the best that I have ever written. Check it out.”
Monocle is at Mipim all week. We have a Monocle Radio booth at P-1, D51. Please visit the team if you are in town.
Andrew Tuck is Monocle’s editor in chief. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe today.
