Lula turns Bolsonaro’s downfall into a win for Brazil’s democracy
The fall of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s mercurial hard-right former president, came gradually and then suddenly. After a steady, years-long drip of revelations about his time in office and months of judicial procedures and hearings, Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted the 70-year-old ex-army captain of plotting a coup d’état and seeking to illegally retain power after his 2022 election defeat. The five-member panel reached a majority verdict and quickly handed down its sentence: 27 years and three months in prison.
The significance of this was lost on no one. Bolsonaro was sentenced alongside several co-conspiring military officers and government officials. His conviction marked the first time that Brazil – a nation that has suffered more than its fair share of coups – had successfully punished the leaders of one of them. In reading their verdicts, the four convicting justices highlighted the vulnerability of democracy and the need to protect institutions against the whims of would-be authoritarians. And that meant dispensing justice, even to the most powerful.
The contrast with the US is clear: whereas America has failed to bring to account a political leader who has chosen to defy democratic rules and norms, Brazil has held firm. On social media, left-wing Brazilians have been revelling in Bolsonaro’s conviction, crowing proudly about the country’s commitment to democracy. On the right, the response has been muted: no mass protests or widespread outrage. Politicians on that side of the spectrum are already plotting what comes next.
The most immediate backlash is likely to come from Donald Trump’s White House. The US president has openly and frequently sympathised with Bolsonaro’s plight and drawn parallels with his own legal strife. As the latter’s trial reached a crescendo in recent weeks, Trump sought to bully Brazil into dropping the case. First, the White House slapped 50 per cent tariffs on the country’s imports. Then it cancelled visas of Brazilian judges and politicians, and hit Alexandre de Moraes – the Supreme Court justice leading the case against Bolsonaro – with Magnitsky Act sanctions. Such sanctions, which freeze De Moraes’s US assets and block him from US financial infrastructure, were once reserved for the world’s worst human-rights offenders. Brazil is now bracing for more.
What happens next to Bolsonaro is less clear. Pending court procedures, his sentence is likely to begin before the end of this year, though it is still undecided whether he will serve it in prison, a federal police facility or in a military barracks, or under house arrest. The man once hailed by supporters as a “messiah” is pinning his hopes on congressional allies passing an amnesty. That would, at the very least, keep him out of prison and, at best, rehabilitate him politically so that he could contest elections next year. Bolsonaro has sought to keep his options open by refusing to name a political heir; if he does name a successor, the decision will be just as significant as that of the courts, showing that he knows his race has been run.
For the incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro’s trial (and the unprecedented intervention of Trump in the court proceedings) has been a blessing. Serving a third, non-consecutive term, Lula’s latest stint in power had until recently been uninspiring. But in the face of attacks from the White House, he has managed to cast himself as a defender of national sovereignty. His administration has even come up with a catchy slogan – “Brazil belongs to Brazilians” – to emblazon on caps and T-shirts. In a New York Times article directed squarely at the US president, Lula said that he was proud of the Supreme Court’s verdict and that Brazilian sovereignty was “not on the table” for negotiations. His efforts appear to be working. A poll released on the day of Bolsonaro’s conviction showed Lula’s approval rating at its highest point this year. Thank you, Donald Trump.
Bryan Harris is a journalist based in São Paulo. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
