Opinion / Tomos Lewis
Iowa’s raucous caucus
The Iowa caucuses take place later today and, as well as being the official curtain-raiser for the 2020 US presidential election cycle, they remain an electoral curiosity. At 19:00 local time tonight, voters will gather in town halls, school gymnasiums and even living rooms right across this vast, sparsely populated Midwestern state to choose their preferred candidate to take on Donald Trump in November's election. It’s a joyously simple and unfussy process. And although the results tonight won’t be binding, they are important for a campaign’s momentum, particularly when the field of candidates is as large and as diverse as it is this time around.
“This is a heavy, complicated knot of a moment for Democrats,” Sally Kohn, an author, activist and left-leaning political commentator, tells me, on the phone from New York. “It's a fight within fights – between a more status quo-oriented, corporate Democrat mentality and the more progressive, transformative wing. It's an existential conversation, in many ways.” This year's caucuses are different for another reason, too. Several candidates, including New York's former mayor Michael Bloomberg, have effectively eschewed campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, in favour of the states which vote later on in the primary cycle. That means that tonight’s results might not be as clear-cut as they first appear. “Bloomberg is going to remain a factor, going into Super Tuesday,” says the political commentator Linda Chavez, who served as an official under Republican presidents Ronald Reagan and George W Bush. “And he is, in fact, climbing in the polls. I think Donald Trump's supporters will be very happy to see Bernie Sanders come out on top, because they think he’s probably the easiest to beat. I’m not sure they’re right about that. But we’ll see what happens.”
If Sanders does win in Iowa later, as recent opinion polls suggest, but more centrist candidates take the second, third and even fourth spots, it may lead many Democratic primary voters elsewhere to conclude that a majority capable of beating Trump does in fact lie in the centre ground, and not on the party’s outer ideological flank. Whatever happens tonight, it really is just the beginning.