Opinion / Leila Molana-Allen
State of turmoil
The past year has seen Lebanon rapidly transform from a country in crisis to a state in full-scale collapse. The value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted from 1,500 to the US dollar to 24,000. Many residents with the option to flee abroad have done so; almost 40 per cent of the country’s doctors have left. The medical system has disintegrated, with basic life-saving medicines scarce. Those left behind have had to live with as little as an hour of mains power a day (pictured) and the rocketing price of petrol, when it’s available, has made transport a luxury reserved for the wealthy. The UN estimates that by January, 80 per cent of the population will be living in abject poverty and facing severe food insecurity.
There’s little hope on the horizon for 2022. Efforts by foreign governments to force Lebanon’s leaders to act have fallen flat, whether it’s the carrot (offers of hundreds of millions of dollars in aid if they undertake reforms) or the stick (sanctions imposed on the overseas wealth of Lebanon’s politicians). Parliamentary elections are due in March but some in the political classes are already trying to move the date, warning that, given the fragile security situation, the vote could be unmanageable.
Some political insiders believe that the government hopes to delay the election until next November, when the next president will be chosen, so that the current parliament can choose their man: Lebanon’s politicians select the president, not the public vote. Even if the election goes ahead as planned, few Lebanese believe that the country’s current or future government can bring about meaningful change. To avoid further collapse, Beirut needs fresh contenders who are ready to take on the entrenched political classes at the polls. But even if some emerge, there’s scant hope that they can reverse decades of mismanagement and neglect.
Leila Molana-Allen is Monocle’s Beirut correspondent.