Thursday 24 February 2022 - Monocle Minute | Monocle

Thursday. 24/2/2022

The Monocle Minute

Image: Getty Images

Breaking news / War in Ukraine

Full force

Reports of heavy fighting have been coming in from across Ukraine today as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of the country, plunging Europe into a scenario not seen since the Second World War. Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s eastern border in the early hours of this morning local time before entering from Belarus in the north and occupied Crimea in the south of the country, as well as launching airstrikes against key military installations, airfields and logistics centres. The information war has also begun, with some Russian sources saying that its forces have faced little resistance and Ukrainian media insisting otherwise.

A clear picture about the scale of the conflict remains extremely hard to come by but what is certain is that Western leaders need to send a strong and united response. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has suggested that his nation remains open for diplomacy and that it’s the West that does “not respect international law”. But the signals from Western leaders are that, until Russia pulls back its forces, diplomacy is not an option. EU representatives will meet later this evening in Brussels and G7 leaders, including Joe Biden, are preparing an unprecedented set of economic and financial sanctions on Russia, though they will not intervene militarily. There have also been appeals to Russian citizens by Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky and other Western leaders, including Boris Johnson, to stand up and show that they do not support their government’s actions.

Vladimir Putin has said that the goal of his action is the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine. The coming hours and days will show whether he has underestimated the willingness of Ukrainians to defend their nation.

For full coverage of the war in Ukraine, listen to Monocle 24’s live news shows across the day, including ‘The Globalist’, ‘The Briefing’ and ‘The Monocle Daily’.

Image: Getty Images

Defence / Nato

Stumbling bloc

Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg (pictured below, on left) made clear today that the alliance will not be sending troops to Ukraine, which is not a member of the bloc. Speaking to Monocle 24’s The Briefing, former Nato deputy supreme allied commander Richard Shirreff was clear on why. “To do so would absolutely guarantee a third world war,” he said. But the alliance is stepping up its air and land defences in eastern member states and an emergency summit is planned for tomorrow. Several countries, including Latvia, Estonia and Poland, have agreed to hold consultations under Nato’s Article 4, which allows such talks if member nations feel under threat. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires Nato mobilisation on a scale not seen since the end of the cold war, according to Shirreff. “That’s going to be a challenge for Nato,” he said. “The bucket is pretty damn near empty as a result of cumulative disarmament.”

Hear more from Shirreff on today’s episode of ‘The Briefing’ on Monocle 24.

Diplomacy / Europe

United in condemnation

European leaders were woken to the news of Russia’s advance and, though their intelligence suggested that such a scenario was imminent, the scale of the invasion is something that they may not have imagined. Ursula von der Leyen (pictured above, on right), president of the European Commission, told the world that Russia was “responsible for bringing war back to Europe” but also added that we shouldn’t “undervalue the strength of democracy”. Condemnations came in from the leaders of France, Germany and elsewhere, with Italy’s president, Mario Draghi, calling the attack “unjustified and unjustifiable”. François Fillon, the former prime minister of France who now sits on the board of Russian petrochemical giant Sibur and had been criticised for staying silent, also made a statement, saying that he “regrets the use of force in Ukraine”. EU leaders were holding an emergency summit in the evening to discuss further measures after an initial round of sanctions was passed on Wednesday. Tough talk, perhaps, but divisions remain in the bloc, notably over the thorny issue of energy and Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and oil.

Economy / Global

Teetering on the brink

Stocks around the world dropped when markets opened on Thursday, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heightening investors’ geopolitical anxieties. Russia’s main index, initially down by 30 per cent, was unsurprisingly the worst hit by the sell-off. The ruble also dropped to a record low, forcing Russia’s central bank to intervene. That’s before the US, EU and UK have even released full details of the sanctions they have promised. Meanwhile, Ukrainian foreign-exchange markets have been suspended under martial law and Kyiv’s stock exchange said that it was halting activity. For those wondering what isn’t plunging, look no further than commodities. Brent crude oil rose to about $105 (€94) per barrel for the first time since 2014 over concerns that Russia’s hugely influential oil supplies will be disrupted. The prices of wheat and corn also jumped – Russia and Ukraine are major producers. Gold and US government bonds, which normally rise in times of stress, also did so sharply. Expect more of the same as the invasion intensifies.

Keep an eye on The Monocle Minute and Monocle 24 for updates and analysis.

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