Opinion / Christopher Cermak
The time is now
There’s a question at the heart of Western sanctions and policies against Russia at the moment: what exactly is the goal? Is it to stop the war in Ukraine as soon as possible? Is it to spark a coup or revolution to oust Vladimir Putin? Or is it to isolate Russia and its people from the international community?
For the moment it feels as though Western leaders are taking an “all of the above” approach. But the goal matters; it dictates whether the West is playing a long or short game. Take Germany, where economy minister Robert Habeck (pictured) has pledged to almost totally wean Germany off Russian oil by the end of this year and natural gas by 2024. For a country that imports more than half of its natural gas from Russia, that’s extremely quick. But what does this move actually achieve? Will it stop the war now?
The conflict in Ukraine is only six weeks old – it may have felt like an eternity, especially for those on the ground in Ukraine, but in the context of global geopolitics, that is hardly a long time. Surely the focus of sanctions, weapons deliveries and boycotts should be on the present; how to quickly exhaust Putin’s financial and military resources, while boosting those of Ukraine; and how to encourage Russian citizens, military officials and politicians to oppose Putin’s actions or find another leader. That means suspending gas deliveries and starving the Russian president of cash today – not two years down the line.
Yes, future relations with Russia might need to be entirely reordered if Putin holds onto power and turns his nation into a permanent pariah. But it’s too early in this conflict – and too many people are suffering in Ukraine today – for the West to be playing the long game just yet.