Opinion / Leila Molana-Allen
Breaking the cycle
Yesterday, Lebanon’s newly elected parliament held its first session (pictured) to select the country’s next president. No one expects the process to be speedy – the last time this happened, the country went without a leader for more than two years as a result of political infighting. But the larger question is what the government can do to pull Lebanon out of its seemingly endless death spiral. This week the authorities made a significant concession: after years of clinging to an official exchange rate that bears no semblance to reality, the Banque du Liban announced that from November it will revise the official rate from L£1,500 to the US dollar to L£15,000. That might still be a long way short of the black market but, in a country that currently has six parallel exchange rates, it is the first realistic step in trying to rebuild a functional economy and financial system. Next comes the even harder choice of whether to adopt the tough fiscal reforms formulated with the IMF.
Lebanon’s leaders are wary of doing so, particularly when it comes to cutting jobs from the bloated public sector; they fear the inevitable backlash from their traditional supporters, whose living standards are already in the gutter. But in recent months the country’s crisis has plumbed new and extreme depths. Citizens are robbing banks to reclaim their savings, while Lebanese (as well as Syrians) in the hope of escape are boarding dangerous boats that often sink.
While more suffering is expected, the beginnings of a plan and policies aimed at rebuilding a country instead of just keeping it on life support are a cause for optimism that Lebanon will one day be a country that works for its people rather than against them.
Leila Molana-Allen is Monocle’s Beirut correspondent.