OPINION / Hannah Lucinda Smith
Leading the charge
Turkey’s main opposition – a coalition spanning secularists, nationalists and Islamists – has long seemed divided and lacklustre. But a three-day crisis worthy of a Turkish soap opera has reversed its fortunes. Kemal Kilicdaroglu (pictured), confirmed on Monday night as the candidate who will stand against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the national elections on 14 May, is an unlikely hero. But half of Turkey is now banking on him to end the strongman’s 20-year tenure – and he stands a significant chance of doing just that.
Kilicdaroglu is the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the biggest member of the “Table of Six” coalition, and has long been the assumed presidential candidate. However, he is a technocratic, uninspiring figure who has lost every election since he took over the CHP in 2010. Meral Aksener, leader of the nationalist Iyi Party, the second largest in the coalition, was unconvinced. At the end of last week she pulled Iyi out of the Table of Six, hoping to dictate the agenda by calling on either Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul’s mayor, or Mansur Yavas, his counterpart in Ankara, to stand for the presidency. But her move seemed to backfire. Though both are charismatic, popular figures, the mayors affirmed their support for Kilicdaroglu, with Aksener becoming marginalised and the future of the coalition hanging in the balance.
That wasn’t the end of the story. On Monday, after a weekend of intense negotiation, Aksener was back in the fold. Following hours of meetings, the six leaders emerged with a signed agreement announcing Kilicdaroglu as their presidential candidate and setting the path for Imamoglu and Yavas to be joint vice-presidential candidates. All of this drama has invigorated Turkey’s opposition voters and Kilicdaroglu is stronger for emerging unscathed. The inclusion of Imamoglu, in particular, gives the coalition a much-needed sprinkle of stardust and with parties from across the spectrum included on the slate, it could appeal to a wide voter base. The opposition now appears to have its best shot in years at defeating Erdogan. But with two months of campaigning to go, there is plenty of time for more plot twists.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.