Opinion / HANNAH LUCINDA SMITH
Shifting strategies
For two months, Turkey’s opposition pursued a radical campaign strategy: meeting the divide-and-rule tactics of the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with a message of unity, love and progress. It didn’t work. Erdogan took the lead in the first round of presidential elections on 14 May, winning 49.52 per cent of the vote against his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.88 per cent. As the country prepares for the run-off on Sunday, Kilicdaroglu (pictured, on banner) has made a sharp about-turn, ditching his heart-shaped hand symbol for hardline rhetoric on refugees and terrorism.
The rebrand is unlikely to succeed. Kilicdaroglu’s new stance is, in part, an attempt to win the support of Sinan Ogan, the nationalist third candidate who took 5.17 per cent of the vote in the first round. But on Monday evening, Ogan announced that he will back Erdogan because he doesn’t believe that the opposition will be able to provide a stable government. Erdogan’s party, in coalition with three smaller nationalist and Islamist parties, won a narrow outright majority in the parliamentary elections, meaning that even if Kilicdaroglu wins on Sunday, Erdogan would still have a tool with which to stymie him. Turks – particularly those who remember the rollercoaster rides of ineffective coalition governments in the 1990s – are fearful of unstable governments.
Meanwhile, Erdogan is using Kilicdaroglu’s connections with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party to suggest that the latter is taking support from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a proscribed militia. Kilicdaroglu has reacted with vague promises to end terrorism in Turkey but he also won some of his biggest victories in the Kurdish region, so any careless rhetoric might cost him voters there without guaranteeing any new nationalist converts. Once again, Erdogan the arch-populist appears to have checkmated his rivals.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.