France has been in decline for much of the past 50 years, such that today, despite there being some bright spots, it can be considered the “sick man of Europe”. Public finances are in shambles (France’s last balanced budget was in 1974). Society feels fractured, while intolerance and insecurity are rising. The country’s byzantine approach to regulation stifles innovation, curtails employment and entrenches a deep-rooted inability to undertake reforms – the most vivid example being its retirement system, which was erected as a totem despite being disconnected from reality and is incapable of adapting to longer life expectancies and shifting demographics. Add to that an inability to cope adequately with its colonial past and a declining role on the world stage.
It is no surprise, then, that the upcoming French parliamentary elections have brought to the fore the likelihood of a real rupture with the past. At one end of the spectrum is the Rassemblement National, inaccurately described as “far-right” but in fact a combination of hard-right on identity issues and sovereign matters and left-leaning (if not populist) on economic and social-security issues. At the other end of the spectrum, if not outside of it, is La France Insoumise, advocating unsustainable policies such as confiscatory taxation, an open-ended social safety net and a levelling-down approach founded on the belief that individual success is inherently suspicious. What once would have been viewed as protest votes might now reflect a growing consensus about what could be a necessary evil: a drastic and real rupture with the past. After all, a country that has been on the decline for years needs first to hit bottom before bouncing back. Witness Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, derogatorily termed the “Pigs” in the wake of the global financial crisis, which, having little choice, undertook meaningful reforms that today serve them well. In many respects, they are examples to follow.
Make no mistake: I wish that the choices were different. Born and raised in Canada but having spent most of my professional career in France – and having been naturalised as a French citizen in 2005 – I have made the choice of France, I believe in France and I know that France can bounce back. But bounce back to what? When you’re in the middle of a storm, you don’t have the best vantage point to speculate on what lies beyond it.
That being said, after what could be a period of meaningful turmoil, I hope that a consensus will emerge among a substantial part of the electorate on preserving a distinct French identity, rejecting the idea of France becoming a community of communities; restoring the authority of the state in sovereign matters; significantly deregulating civil society; ensuring that immigration rhymes with integration; redistributing wealth in a manner that is fair to contributors and that can sustainably support a relatively expansive social safety net; and restating France’s commitment to Europe. Wishful thinking? Time will tell.
Jean Raby is a partner in a pan-European private-equity firm. He holds both Canadian and French citizenships and has been based in Paris for the better part of the past 30 years.
For more opinion, analysis and insight,
subscribe
to Monocle today.