After a startling wake-up call from Washington, Europe is finally getting serious about hard power. But beyond its support for Ukraine, which was the focus of yesterday’s European Commission summit in Brussels, the continent needs to turn its attention to tooling up and getting autonomous. With France’s nuclear arsenal and decisive action promised by Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, it’s an achievable goal.
The US’s new reluctance to adhere to the postwar norms that it largely created should not be dismissed as a flash in the pan. While Donald Trump will not be in power forever, there’s evidence that his “America First” stance will have a lasting influence. When Joe Biden succeeded Trump’s first administration in 2020, many of the tariffs that his predecessor imposed on China stayed in place; the promised resurrection of the Iran nuclear deal never materialised; and France was blindsided by the Aukus security agreement, which saw the US snatch €60bn worth of defence contracts from under Paris’s nose. “The future of Europe must not be decided in Washington or Moscow,” said Emmanuel Macron this week. Even if a Democrat succeeds Trump, that will remain the case.
Heavy weather: French president Emmanuel Macron
Image: Alamy
Whatever happens in the coming days – or years – there is a possibility that the roughly 100 US nuclear weapons dotted across Europe cannot be relied upon to defend anything more than the narrowest US interests. Though France only possesses a fraction of the thousands of warheads that the US or Russia hold, its nuclear arsenal is fully autonomous – unlike the UK’s, which relies on American components and maintenance. Nuclear deterrent in hand, Macron has been keen to lead the development of Europe’s “strategic autonomy” for years. Merz’s support for a new European security architecture independent from the US opens the door to making defensive independence a reality.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, European allies collectively spend nearly four times more than Russia on defence. If this financial, political and military support were directed towards the reorganisation and upgrade of France’s nuclear-capable fleet of submarines and Rafale jets, Paris could provide the homegrown deterrent that the old world needs. After all, what use is an umbrella if you need US approval to use it?
Simon Bouvier is Monocle’s Paris bureau chief. For more opinion, analysis and insight,
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