The main reason for hoping that Russia’s rampage in Ukraine might soon end is, of course, humanitarian. The ceasefire pitched by Ukraine and the US this week would at least prevent more people joining the long list of victims of Russian aggression. But there are commercial imperatives at play too, especially among airlines. The Lufthansa Group’s CEO, Carsten Spohr, has said that he hopes that Russian airspace might shortly reopen. His airline wants to expand its business in Asia but is hampered by the logistical and financial burdens of finding ways around the considerable obstacle that is Russia.
Risk factors: Aeroplanes at George Bush Intercontinental Airport
Image: Getty Images
When Moscow launched its full-scale assault on Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU and many other Western-allied nations banned Russian aircraft from their airspace. Russia responded in kind. Airlines should not have needed to be told, however. Russian forces or their proxies have shot down commercial airliners before – for example, the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 over Ukraine in 2014. In January the EU Aviation Safety Agency reiterated its warning against flying over Russia.
Some airlines continue to take their chances, however. Turkish Airlines and Air Serbia, to name two, will still fly you to Moscow. Some European airlines, struggling to compete on China routes, simply gave up on them: British Airways suspended flights to Beijing in October and halved its Hong Kong services. Virgin Atlantic cancelled its Shanghai route last July, noting that flying around Russia added an hour to the outbound flight and two hours to the return. Even at the relatively economical operating costs of the Boeing 787 – €18 per seat an hour – this stacks up. It might be a forlorn hope that airlines will ponder the ethical issues: in 2023, Russia ramped up overflight fees by 20 per cent to help pay for its war.
Andrew Mueller hosts ‘The Foreign Desk’ on Monocle Radio. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.