Nights of protest have left their mark on Istanbul’s city hall: the floor is littered with thousands of spent rubber bullets and there’s graffiti on the walls calling for law, justice and the resignation of the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The arrest and imprisonment of the city’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has provoked a furious response across the country. This reflects the work that Imamoglu and his team have done not only to improve life for Istanbul’s residents but also to raise hopes among Turkey’s long-demoralised opposition.
Changing tide: Protesters in Istanbul
Image: Kemal Aslan / AFP / Getty Images
Imamoglu has become the nation’s most prominent and popular opposition figure since he first won Istanbul in 2019. A few hours after he was formally charged for corruption on Sunday, he received his party’s nomination to run for president. Some 15 million people voted in support of Imamoglu, who was then in a cell in Silivri, a prison near Istanbul that is full of Erdogan’s opponents.
“The government believes that it has good international standing and so can do whatever it wants,” says Mustafa Osman Turan, a foreign-relations advisor to the mayor of Istanbul. “That is partially true. But opposition is growing, not only from European governments but also from mayors in other countries.” Despite this, international condemnation has been mostly muted. Erdogan has chosen his moment carefully. As Donald Trump pulls the US away from the Atlantic alliance, Turkey is an increasingly valuable Nato ally and a key intermediary with the new government in Syria. In recent years, Erdogan has found that he can leverage Turkey’s strategic importance to pressure Europe – just as he did when he slowed down Sweden and Finland’s Nato accession. Now he is betting that Turkey’s crucial position will prevent his European allies from criticising his crackdown.
But the protests are unlikely to abate. On Sunday night many Istanbul residents were injured as police fired rubber bullets and released tear gas at close range. In some instances, police appeared to beat protesters who were lying on the ground. The Turkish economy is taking a hit as foreign investors, who were just beginning to return to the country, are pulling out again. Erdogan has relied on timing, pragmatism and political savvy to stay in power for 22 years. This time, however, the cards are stacked against him. Should the violence escalate, he might find himself a pariah in Europe once again.
Hannah Lucinda Smith is Monocle’s Istanbul correspondent. For more opinion, analysis and insight,
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