After asking the EU to foot the bill for a series of fictitious jobs, Marine Le Pen was rightly convicted of embezzlement. She faces imprisonment, a hefty fine and a five-year ban from running for public office. Naturally, the National Rally leader and her allies both at home and abroad are up in arms. Before the ruling, she was a front-runner to become France’s next president in 2027. Some have accused the judge of overstepping her bounds: Le Pen’s right-hand man and likely successor, Jordan Bardella, has denounced the sentence as the “execution of French democracy”, while the Kremlin has described it as “a violation of democratic norms”.
Regardless, yesterday’s verdict was a victory for France. Targeting corrupt politicians has long been considered an important step towards ending impunity in public life and even Le Pen, fond of denouncing a lax justice system, was all for it. Despite the potential political consequences, the judge’s decision will be remembered as a moment when French democratic institutions stood firm.
Out of the running? Marine Le Pen
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France is a divided country and the reaction to Le Pen’s conviction is far from clear-cut. Many of her political opponents, who have seen how Donald Trump turned legal troubles to his electoral advantage in the US, are nervous that the decision could add fuel to the fire of the French far-right; some have accordingly raised concerns about banning her from running for office before she has had a chance to appeal. Le Pen, meanwhile, could lash out at François Bayrou’s already-fragile government in the hope that voters will see the ensuing mayhem as proof that politics is broken and only she and her party can fix it.
The question now is: if the appeal fails, who will pick up the mantle? Though Le Pen has an heir apparent in Bardella, a candidate with significant clout among younger voters, his inexperience has some in the National Rally worried. Le Pen’s grip on the party was such that even discussing a plan B was taboo. Like her or not, she has singlehandedly dragged her party from the fringes into the French political mainstream. Without her as its candidate for president, the National Rally looks like a party adrift.
Bouvier is Monocle’s Paris bureau chief. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.