The pressure on countries facing higher US tariffs is mounting (writes Vicky Pryce). Comparisons with the turmoil of Black Monday in October 1987, the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Brexit and the coronavirus slump of March 2020 all abound and are apt. Stock markets have been wiped out in the past few days to the tune of trillions. The World Trade Organization adjusted its trade projections for this year alone from a 3 per cent rise to a 1 per cent drop. But, as with previous shocks, recovery will come. Mark my words.
These historic recoveries took time and, in every case, relied on massive, active state interventions: bailouts, cuts in interest rates and injections of funds to get things moving again. This time, Europe is well-positioned to cushion the blow – especially compared to its peers in Asia. While the EU’s ability to divert exports will be affected by the slowdown of global demand, it has headroom to support its economy: The European Central Bank has been cutting rates more aggressively than others and will slash them further in the short term. After all, the EU has a population of 450 million people who mostly trade with one another. The freedom of movement among the union’s people, goods, capital and services remains a highly fruitful, tariff-free trade area. The euro currency, which 20 nations share, only adds to this appeal. This sudden change of tariffs might allow for even greater unification – particularly in capital markets, technological and AI investments.
Germany has already unshackled itself from its restrictive “debt brake” and the cost of borrowing is falling. Some of the planned joint borrowing for extra defence spending can also be diverted to emergency economic support; desperate times call for desperate measures – and Europe needs to act. In the medium to long term the EU should look at forging closer trade alliances with the rest of the world and onshoring to limit future risk. Right now, while uncertainty prevails, unity and cool heads can win the day.
Vicky Pryce is chief economic adviser at The Centre for Economics and Business Research and a frequent contributor to Monocle Radio. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.