The Monocle Minute

With the clock ticking down to Brazil’s elections in 2026, the country’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has found himself in a tight spot. Recent opinion polls put the left-wing leader’s approval rating at an all-time low of 24 per cent. Brazilians are becoming increasingly apathetic towards his administration and are frustrated with issues such as the rising cost of living. This is a far cry from Lula’s first two terms in office between 2003 and 2010. During those terms, he was hailed by Barack Obama as the “most popular politician on Earth” and left office with an approval rating above 80 per cent.

But Lula reckons that he has an ace to play. Last month his administration unveiled a sweeping tax-exemption plan, which seeks to revitalise the president’s image as a champion of social justice and a defender of the working class. The reforms, rolled out with just enough time to affect the outcome of the elections, propose an income-tax exemption for anyone earning BR$5,000 (€750) or less per month. The measure will boost the income of more than 10 million people who straddle Brazil’s working and middle classes, including drivers, nurses and teachers. The reform is now with Congress, whose predominantly populist politicians have signalled their willingness to grant the feel-good tax break.

But that’s where the bonhomie ends. To maintain Brazil’s fiscal credibility in the eyes of investors, the government also aims to implement a tax on high-income Brazilians, which would apply to monthly earnings above BR$50,000 (€7,500). Unfortunately for Lula, this has proved deeply unpopular with Congress. Parliament might be populist but it is also deeply conservative and aligned with the country’s rich and powerful.

In the end, Brazil’s income-tax reform will probably emerge as a compromise that tries to please everyone, with just enough benefits handed out to boost the popularity of Lula – and Congress – in time for the elections. As for who will bear the costs, that will be for the next government to deal with.

Harris is a Latin American columnist based in São Paulo. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.

In Austria this week, for the first time in three decades, the Swiss Armed Forces are participating in military exercises beyond their country’s borders (writes Christopher Cermak). While Austria and Switzerland are neutral and not members of Nato, the drills are a sign of just how much Europe’s security landscape has changed over the past few years. “The world is once again a Bismarckian vision of great powers, where the law of the strongest prevails,” Swiss diplomat Jacques Pitteloud told the Neue Zürcher Zeitung recently. “The days of the rules-based value system are over.”

The exercises, known as “Trias 25”, will include about 1,000 Swiss soldiers as well as German and Austrian forces, tanks, drones and other vehicles. Operating on the expansive new training grounds of Allentsteig, it will be the largest trilateral exercise between these nations. While the drills might not involve the Nato military alliance, their focus is on preparing for a conventional land war in Europe. Pitteloud has also called for Switzerland to participate in more Nato exercises, claiming that the country could bolster the bloc’s cybersecurity and logistics infrastructure. Switzerland and Austria profess neutrality but both nations still need to be ready for a worst-case scenario, which is why follow-up drills are already planned for 2027 and 2029.

The countdown to Art Basel 2025 in June has begun and today the fair unveiled some of the highlights from its forthcoming programme of public-art installations (writes Lucrezia Motta). Here are some of the curators and artists whose work you’ll soon spot in the Swiss city.

Katharina Grosse, artist
Basel’s Messeplatz exhibition centre is set for a takeover by German artist Katharina Grosse (pictured above), known for her large-scale, tie-dye-like works created using a paint spray gun. You can be sure that there will be an explosion of colour on show. “I want to paint the world,” says Grosse.

Stefanie Hessler, curator and director of Swiss Institute
Parcours is an annual group show held in the streets of Basel that stretches from Clarastrasse to the Rhine. This year’s exhibition – which takes “Second Nature” as its theme – will be Stefanie Hessler’s second time at the curatorial helm. “In this year’s Parcours, artists will question what is perceived to be natural or commonplace in Basel’s everyday spaces,” says Hessler. “They’re examining perceptions, attitudes and desires across ecosystems, bodies and technologies.” An additional satellite work for Parcours at Münsterplatz will feature a textile installation by artist duo Hylozoic/Desires.

Giovanni Carmine, curator and director of Kunst Halle Sankt Gallen
The Unlimited exhibition at Art Basel is dedicated to large-scale works, from sculptures to wall paintings and video projections. “It is this simultaneity – of poetry and politics, of hope and critique – that defines ‘Unlimited’,” says curator Giovanni Carmine. “It is not the size of the works that makes ‘Unlimited’ special. It’s the way they stimulate and stretch our thinking.” One of the standout pieces is Atelier Van Lieshout’s surrealist installation “The Voyage – A March to Utopia (2025)”, which traces humanity’s pursuit of happiness and freedom.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s insular, heavily sanctioned and brutal dictatorship last December was greeted with cautious optimism that a freer state would emerge, in which the nation’s ethnic and religious diversity would be respected. Today, Syria faces difficult challenges: more than half of the population has been displaced and some 130,000 buildings are in ruins. What the future holds is unclear but one thing is certain: the nation and its economy must be rebuilt.

Turkey, a close ally of the new leadership, is ready to do business. For Monocle’s April issue, Hannah Lucinda Smith flew to Syria from Istanbul with the country’s returnees – and Turkish investors – to find out what lies ahead.

To mark the release of the issue, Monocle spoke to Lucinda Smith about her reporting in a new film, which is accompanied by photographs by Emin Özmen.

From Saturday, visitors to Abu Dhabi’s Saadiyat Cultural District will be able to step inside its latest museum, teamLab Phenomena. The building, designed by Japan’s teamLab Architects alongside UAE-based MZ Architects, is home to an array of interactive art works, from ever-changing digital forests to knee-deep pools with mirrored balloons and lanterns. We caught up with Tony Abi Gebrayel, managing partner of MZ Architects, ahead of the museum’s opening.

How would you describe this project?
This space is a one-of-a-kind digital-art museum. It is based on curiosity and how art can be inspired by nature. The building design drew from natural elements. People might wonder whether it represents a cloud, sand dunes or waves.

Where’s the best view of the building?
The bridge connecting Saadiyat Island to mainland Abu Dhabi. From there, you can see the roof rising from the waterside. When I’m at the museum, I like to walk around the outside and look at the monumental walls curving up above me. The building has such a sense of scale.

How does this project fit into the Saadiyat Cultural District?
Our collaboration with teamLab Architects brought together our two cultures: Middle Eastern and Japanese. But the museum had to feel international. Saadiyat Cultural District is not only for people who live nearby or in the wider Middle East; it’s for anyone seeking to get together and admire culture. It’s a space for artists and architects who want to dream.

From Prada’s new trainer to Paris’s sharpest shirts and handcrafted Japanese menswear, Monocle’s team has crunched the numbers, travelled the world and is now ready to unveil this year’s top 25 designers, products and brands. Plus: our trusty Concierge takes us on a tour of Tokyo, we visit Brazil’s leading garden designer and talk to the man who runs the show at Eurovision. Smarten up your style with Monocle’s fashion special – out now.