Predictive texts

1.
Emerging markets will top the box office
Cameron Bailey, CEO of Toronto International Film Festival, on the future of the global film industry and why audiences are looking beyond Hollywood.

I’m hoping for balloons and cake when tiff celebrates its 50th edition in 2025. I’m excited to learn about new features and filmmakers this year. In 2024 many Cannes festivalgoers discovered Payal Kapadia through her arthouse hit, All We Imagine as Light, and Laura Carreira through her debut, On Falling. I can’t wait to see who’s next.

I don’t believe the accepted wisdom that screen stories can only get shorter and more synthetic. For the film industry to remain inspiring, all that it needs to do is look for new voices and new regions, and trust in the infinite curiosity of filmgoers. I’ll be first in line to see the clunky attempts at mainstream movies built by artificial intelligence. Big moments in film history always tell you a lot about the art form. The introduction of colour, widescreen shots, 3D and computer animation to screens all spring to mind. When we begin to better understand artificial intelligence and its capabilities beyond simply imagining new stories, we’ll have more pressing things to worry about than what it has done to cinema.

As technology continues to upend the film industry, the work of trailblazing filmmakers, such as India’s Rima Das, is more important than ever – and a powerful argument in favour small-scale craft. I’m keeping an eye on Winnipeg’s Matthew Rankin, who recently directed Universal Language, one of the most original comedies that I have ever seen. There’s also American actor Danielle Deadwyler. I hope that we all get to see her do bigger and wilder roles on screen.

The main challenge that the sector is facing is pessimism. Over the past decade, every corner of industry has been rattled by fast, disorienting change. The old business models are dead. Filmmakers might want to curl up in a corner next to newspaper publishers but, like journalism, screen storytelling can – and must – be reinvented. I draw optimism from audiences, especially young ones, who are as thrilled by seeing their first Edward Yang classic as they are by sexy new hits such as Anora. After coronavirus-pandemic restrictions lifted in Canada, we decided to make tiff’s year-round programming more accessible, particularly to those under 25. Now we have young people glued to Oscar contenders as well as classic films.

If you like discovering new pop-culture trends, then my advice would be to keep an eye on Southeast Asia and Africa. The next great filmmaker could come from Vietnam, Malaysia, Nigeria or Indonesia. These countries will definitely produce some of the most influential future filmgoers as their young audiences grow.

2.
Physical retail is here to stay
Cape Town-based designer Sindiso Khumalo on the future of the global fashion industry, eco-conscious consumers and why in-person shopping is more important than ever.

Today’s designers are creating for a generation that cares more about making environmentally conscious clothing choices. Big brands will have to relate to that customer, otherwise they risk losing market share. A lot of people can be cynical about sustainability but I think that it’s a fantastic thing; any change is a good change if it’s in the right direction. But it’s very expensive to be sustainable. Large fashion brands should work with smaller labels to create a better kind of fast fashion – one that isn’t destroying the planet.

War and uncertainty have dominated the agenda in 2024. All of this has affected the economy, which had knock-on effects in the fashion industry. It has led to real concern among major brands. The last thing that people think about buying at a time of instability is a pretty dress.

But I’m an optimist and I always say that nothing lasts for ever. Brands have the opportunity to re-evaluate how they speak to and understand their customers. People want the truth, whether it’s about leadership in governance or where their clothes are made. They want more transparency. Businesses need to take accountability and decide how they’re going to operate.

The future of the fashion industry will hinge on brands having physical shops. I’m opening my first retail space in December 2024. Shopping well is a treat – and it’s an experience that should be honoured. I remember people telling me 10 years ago that it would all eventually be online. This is not the case. Most of us want a tactile experience – probably even more so now because almost everything we do is on screens. Physical shops aren’t going anywhere. If anything, more designers will open retail spaces over the coming years.

There will also be geographical shifts in the fashion industry, with businesses pivoting to focus on growing markets in Asia or Africa. Brands will increasingly begin to think of themselves as part of a global community.

3.
Global power will shift to Asia – and Europe must adapt
Former Singapore permanent representative to the United Nations Kishore Mahbubani on Asia’s prospects on the world stage.

The year to come marks the start of the next quarter of the 21st century – a quarter that I believe will be dominated by Asian politics and culture. The balance of world power is shifting from West to East. The most dangerous issue in Asia is the security of Taiwan, given that it could trigger a collision between the two biggest global powers: the US and China. But both countries understand that war would be disastrous. Even though they have conflicting perspectives on Taiwan, they will avoid entering into a direct confrontation.

The US-China relationship will probably remain troubled for the next 10 years, regardless of who is in power. Geopolitics is driven by structural factors, not personalities. There will be challenges to navigate for at least two or three more presidential terms, until a new equilibrium develops.

Southeast Asia is a politically underrated part of the world. Among the Asean group of nations, there are strong new leaders in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. The bloc will continue to do well over the coming decade. As geopolitical tensions rise, it's important for countries to find safe venues in which to talk to each other. Asean events have convening power – they’re one of the only places in which both the US and China feel comfortable communicating.

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea will remain a challenge but I’m reasonably confident that there won’t be a war. There might be skirmishes and tensions but China knows that it has to be very careful in how it manages relations with its Asean neighbours. Relatively speaking, the bloc is friendly towards China, so it’s not in Beijing’s interest to alienate the countries within it.

There are still many people in the West who believe that the G7 group of nations will continue to play the biggest and most significant role in the global arena. But I believe that it is in its sunset years. Its importance is diminishing. By contrast, Brics, which was founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is being taken more seriously and has suddenly expanded to include new partner states such as Egypt and Ethiopia. The conventional wisdom in the West is that, one way or another, geopolitical power will remain with the West. I disagree. Over the next 25 years there will be a significant shift in power towards the Global South – and the West is completely unprepared.

4.
Despite rising tensions, nuclear threats are on track to fizzle out
London-based Open Nuclear Network director Andreas Persbo on nuclear arms and the distant possibility of disarmament.

It feels as though we’re nearing a threshold. The relationship between Iran and Israel is teetering on a razor’s edge. Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons and Iran is closing in on them. The question of Iran’s nuclear ambitions is one of those persistent issues that no one really knows the answer to. But it has never felt more pressing than it does now, especially as the country’s recent tensions with Israel have pulled the topic of nuclear armament back into sharp focus. By most estimates, Iran would need about a year and a half to fully weaponise if it made that choice, though there are indications that it could compress that timeline. The country has already developed missiles and delivery systems to deploy such capabilities. A nuclear-armed Iran would fundamentally shift the region’s security landscape. It would amplify risk in ways that would ripple far beyond the Middle East.

Hollywood has painted this picture of a nuclear explosion as a big bang, a shockwave after which the hero shakes off the dust and steps into a post-apocalyptic world. But that is far from the reality. Nuclear weapons don’t just destroy structures: they create a wasteland, unravelling every thread that civilisation is built on. In the event of a large-scale nuclear conflict, there’s no “starting over”. It’s cataclysmic. This isn’t Mad Max. It’s an end with no second act.

I would rather see humanity go through two conventional world wars in the next century than a single nuclear war. We can rebuild from conventional warfare. Yes, the suffering is terrible and the cost is unimaginable but it’s something that we can come back from. Introduce nuclear weapons, though, and the stakes change. Nuclear war is unwinnable and once it happens, there’s no going back. And yet, here we are, willing to gamble on that possibility.

Striking a balance between deterrence and arms control has traditionally relied on bilateral efforts between the US and Russia. This has led to the largest reductions in global nuclear stockpiles and is still a method that holds promise. But for complete abolition? Multilateralism is the only viable route. For now, international disarmament is a vision for the future – and one that requires much patience and groundwork. We need to think strategically and in a way that respects the real security concerns of nuclear states. It’s about laying the foundations for a peaceful world order – step by step, consensus by consensus.

Nuclear weapons will no longer be part of the global-security framework by the end of the century. By then these weapons will have held sway over international relations for more than 150 years–  and that’s a very long time. The world’s trajectory is marked by resource scarcity, climate crises, energy demands and mass migration and points to a new time with different challenges.

5.
Sustainability will be luxury hospitality’s number-one sell
Ho Ren Yung, deputy chief executive officer at global hospitality firm Banyan Group, on greenwashing and the death of the social-media aesthetic.

Slow travel is something that will continue to grow in popularity in 2025. I would define the concept as a choice to travel more intentionally, with an increased focus on connection and wellbeing, culturally rich and authentic experiences, and environmentally conscious itineraries.

The increased attention on regenerative tourism is a positive thing for the hospitality industry. The Banyan Group was built with this in mind. More and more businesses are beginning to combat decades-long issues stemming from over-tourism.

One of the biggest challenges facing the hospitality sector over the coming year will be balancing growth with meaningful sustainability practices. The industry must go beyond surface-level “green” initiatives and embed eco-conscious practices deep into every aspect of its operating model, from construction and energy use to waste management and partnerships. This will require both substantial investment and innovation, especially when it comes to adapting properties to meet more stringent environmental standards.

The growing presence of women in hospitality leadership is not only levelling the playing field but also changing how we operate and connect with guests. In traditionally male-dominated areas, such as operations, we’re seeing a new generation of female leaders bring diverse insights, empathy, and an exceptional focus on community and sustainability to the fore. More is being done to support women taking their first steps into the industry, as well train and equip them with the skills needed to advance their careers.

There are significant growth opportunities in travel markets across Asia, the Middle East and, increasingly, North America. Asia is playing a pivotal role in the sector, with countries such as China and Japan experiencing a resurgence in luxury tourism, particularly among younger, affluent travellers seeking sustainable travel options. The Middle East market is also among the world’s fastest growing, fuelled by a robust surge in tourists interested in immersive, wellbeing-focused trips.

What won’t survive in the new year? Places designed primarily for aesthetic appeal in photos rather than for meaningful guest experiences. The industry has long been captivated by photo-ready decor meant to drive social-media engagement. But this superficiality now feels increasingly out of touch with society. Hotels will move away from creating these picture-perfect spaces and instead focus on thoughtfully designed environments that encourage genuine interaction, comfort and respect for culture.

6.
Gene editing will eradicate rare diseases
Berkeley biochemist and winner of the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, Jennifer Doudna, on reducing greenhouses gases and genetic diseases through DNA modifications.

Crispr-based genome editing is a field that’s moving very quickly. [Crispr is an acronym that stands for “clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats”.] The technology allows scientists to change the genetic makeup of organisms by making targeted breaks in dna and then harnessing its natural repair processes to modify the gene in the desired manner. This means that we can now do things such as correct disease-causing genes and make changes in microbes that affect the way that crops are grown or help us to deal with climate change. Over the next year we’ll continue to see advances in all of these areas.

In 2023 the US Food and Drug Administration approved the first Crispr-based gene therapy for sickle cell disease. I expect similar breakthroughs to come in future. I’m not sure whether this will happen in 2025 but it will certainly take place over the next two years. More Crispr-based therapies will be approved and a wider range of patients will able to access them. In agriculture, Crispr-made crops are already coming to market. I’m certain that we will see an increase in the number of these yields in the next year and beyond.

On the healthcare side, there’s an ongoing debate about how to use Crispr in ways that will be most effective for patients. Up until now it has mostly been used as a tool with broad applications for the treatment of rare diseases. But I suspect that we’ll see an increased interest in using the technology to inform our approach to preventive medicine in the future. Due to the specific way in which Crispr targets dna, it might become possible to make changes in genes that cause hereditary illnesses, including cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases.

An exciting project that we’re working on at the Innovative Genomics Institute is targeting the microbes in cows that produce methane. The exponential rise in global temperature is partly attributed to methane – one of the most powerful greenhouse gases. Agriculture contributes to a large fraction of the amount that is emitted around the world every year. Crispr could have a real effect on reducing these emissions in an accessible, cost-effective manner by making specific changes to the gut microbiomes that produce gas in the stomachs of cattle. We’re already at a point where we know that we can do it. So now we have to ask ourselves, “How do we scale it?”

I don’t think that the gene editing of embryos will happen any time soon. But it’s a very real possibility in the future and something that we all need to be aware of as a potential use of Crispr.

7.
Trump will overcome domestic division
Glenn Corn, senior director for geopolitics and global threat assessment at the Institute of Critical Infrastructure Technology, on US foreign policy under the next Trump administration.

We’re probably going to see a tougher line on China under the next Trump administration. Trade will be one of the government’s main focal points. War in the Middle East is a contentious issue; it’s a tinderbox. The Israelis are probably breathing a sigh of relief right now. They were very concerned that the US was moving away from them. But my guess is that the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump is good. In more than a year of war between Israel and Hamas, US public opinion on the conflict has continuously shifted. The war has significantly altered the relationship between the US and one of its closest allies – and it’s unclear whether it will recover. Nevertheless, the Trump administration has to continue to work with the Israelis.

Gulf states will welcome the return of a Trump administration. The US will hopefully be able overcome the obstacles that Iran has created in this area and continue to improve its relationship with the Middle East. In the long run this would also help the Palestinian people and ease some of the tensions in the US.

I was just in Turkey and many people there were happy that Trump had been re-elected. They felt neglected by the Biden administration. With Trump in charge, the US now has the opportunity to revive its relationship with Turkey and review its policies. It will be interesting to see what Turkey’s position will be on Israel and Palestine. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adopted a strongly anti-Israel stance since the war in Gaza began. How will the US handle that, especially if it is going to try to improve relations with Tel Aviv?

The new Trump administration was elected on domestic-policy promises. It will have to focus on the economy and other social issues that are important to voters. I don’t know whether it will be possible to address all of these problems at the start. But I’m hopeful that the new government will pay more attention to Africa and Central Asia, and be more culturally sensitive to the countries that it is trying to build relationships with. This means less lecturing and instead, more listening and more flexibility. There will be more action, not just words.

8.
Africa and Asia will become the centre of the world’s urban future
Wong Mun Summ, the director of WOHA architects, on the how the changing climate is encouraging us to adapt the way that we design cities.

I’m on the nominating committee for the Lee Kuan Yew World City Prize. We awarded the 2024 award to Mexico City. When I met its leadership team, I was convinced that it was somewhere I should keep an eye on. The Mexican capital isn’t starting from scratch; it’s a very old place with a long history. But it is implementing new policies and seeing good results from them.

There is so much potential to design and plan metropolises in a different way to the past. Going forward, there will be two forces at play: at one end, commercialism, and at the other, responsible design and planning. They need to come together. Cities, at the end of the day, should be liveable, vibrant and beautiful so that they remain attractive to people. Urban environments compete against each another. We need to strike the right balance between economic growth and societal good.

Our cities are big. But in the future they’ll be even bigger. Small cities will become large cities and large cities will become megacities. In places such as Africa and India, there will be a lot of urban growth. India is rapidly urbanising and will see similar growth to what China has experienced over the past 25 years. New cities are also going to appear in Southeast Asia. It’s important that they are designed in both a sustainable and regenerative manner.

Existing metropolises are still viable and they will continue to make themselves more liveable. European cities have been doing well with implementing clean-energy policies. Climate change presents us with the opportunity to rethink architecture. We need to come up with innovative, responsible solutions for a better future.

9.
Putin will expect Trump’s support – but it might not be forthcoming
Candace Rondeaux, head of the Future Frontlines programme at the New America think-tank, on the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Vladimir Putin will see a partnership with Donald Trump as a victory for Russia in its war against Ukraine. Over the coming year there will be tremendous pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky to cut a deal with Moscow. But the problem is that it’s really not up to Zelensky. Some 48 million Ukrainians have already answered the question of their future by fighting this war. We shouldn’t expect to see rapid capitulation, even in the event that Trump delivers on his promise to drastically reduce aid to Ukraine.

The challenge is now to reckon with this stark reality. Zelensky knows that there are serious military challenges. One possible solution would be to establish an accord on some sort of no man’s land. An armistice similar to that of the 38th parallel solution between South Korea and North Korea could provide Ukraine with a viable path to long-term security.

We should be very worried about the prospect of North Korean troops [which are in Russia preparing for deployment] becoming a bulwark inside Ukraine. If the West has to strike those troops in order to save Ukraine or buffer the Polish border, then it will find itself in a situation where it is directly attacking a nuclear-power state that has zero motivation to co-operate, collaborate or capitulate in any kind of negotiated, high-stakes situation.

The danger of Ukraine falling or failing cannot be overstated. It could affect everything from China’s stance on Taiwan and border security at the edge of Poland to nuclear proliferation. It also has long-term implications for the relationship between North Korea, Iran, Russia and China. There needs to be some sort of reckoning, with the idea that a loss for Ukraine will trigger the influx of millions of refugees into Europe and the collapse of a large economy that sits at the edge of the continent.

In Moscow, Putin’s footing is not as firm as people would like to think. There are numerous reasons why this is the case, including sanctions against Russia, the president’s age and the constitutional limits that he will face in 2036. In addition to this, the cost of the war will have a widespread effect on the economy, even if Putin is able to declare some sort of victory.

A Ukrainian invitation to join Nato would not only bolster morale but also shift conversations around everything from the country’s age of mobilisation to its ability to fund its own defence over the coming years. It would definitely change the outcome of the war and give Ukraine the strategic and military edge that it needs at the negotiating table.

10.
Restaurants will go back to basics
Pichaya ‘Pam’ Soontornyanakij, chef and founder of Bangkok’s Potong, on fine dining returning to a traditional approach and the challenges facing the hospitality industry.

I like to eat out when I travel for work and have noticed that the old ways of cooking have become fashionable again. A lot of classic recipes are popular right now. For the past 10 years chefs have been trying to create out-of-this-world molecular menus. But in reality, people just miss the classics.

In Thailand, chefs are focusing more on local food, even if they have trained in France or the US. Diners have begun to pay more attention to the differences between northern and southern Thai cuisine. Five or 10 years ago, you wouldn’t see people paying highly for a Thai meal because they opted for cheaper street food instead. They thought that fine dining didn’t really make sense here. But now visitors and citizens alike are appreciating what Thai chefs have to offer.

Forgotten ingredients are returning to plates and menus across the world. Central, a restaurant in Lima, Peru, is an expert in finding unusual local ingredients and presenting them in a unique way. Eco-friendly practices are also being adopted by many restaurants. Some chefs want to focus on sourcing ingredients from sustainable suppliers, while others want to produce less waste.

The lack of manpower is the biggest challenge facing the hospitality industry right now. I have spoken to both restaurant and hotel managers, who are struggling to find enough workers to fill roles as chefs in kitchens and waiters in dining rooms. The economy isn’t strong enough to plug the gap in staff shortages.

People don’t spend as much on eating out nowadays. This will sadly force many restaurants to close. But I’m excited about the new restaurants that will pop up and those that will stay. In this economic crisis, only the strong will survive. Emerging restaurants will have to offer something different. Their concept has to be a lot stronger; everything has to be better and more interesting in order to make it through. I’m really interested to see what will happen next.