Opener / Megan Gibson
Tread carefully
Here’s a history lesson for Donald Trump: in the early 2000s, amid growing discontent with Hugo Chávez, Venezuelan businessman Pedro Carmona organised a strike, attempted a coup and even managed to have the president detained. But Carmona’s success was short-lived: loyalists helped put Chávez back in office within days and Carmona fled the country. It was later revealed that the CIA knew of the coup plot in advance. For Chávez the incident was ammunition served on a silver platter: he was subsequently able to depict any opponents as anti-democratic.
Nearly 20 years on, opponents of Nicolás Maduro, whose iron-fisted rule has seen the country become a failed state, should take heed. Backed by foreign leaders – including, most vocally, Donald Trump – politician Juan Guaidó has staked a claim to the top job (he is recognised by some as interim president). After calling for nationwide protests yesterday he’s vowed to return to Venezuela, even though he is likely to be arrested when he arrives. Maduro has seized on Trump’s theatrics and his threat of military force to paint Guaidó as a US puppet – a tactic that still appeals to his supporters.
There’s no question that Venezuela needs urgent change but it also faces a dilemma: Maduro must be ousted but a US-backed military intervention would be a catastrophic way to see him go.