Opinion / Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Surprise parties
There was much to confound observers of election results in Ecuador and Peru this past weekend. In Ecuador, former banker and conservative candidate Guillermo Lasso (pictured, on left) surprised many with a run-off election win on his third shot at the presidency. It helped that the opposition failed to unite around young leftist economist Andrés Arauz, whose candidacy was undermined by Yaku Pérez, an indigenous leader who almost made the second round instead of Arauz and called on his supporters to spoil their ballots. In Peru the situation is even more fragmented. Preliminary results show leftist Pedro Castillo in the lead – another surprise – followed by three other candidates who are all still in with a chance to make it to a run-off in June.
There are many reasons for this explosion of new and unexpected candidates: one is disillusionment with the main political parties on the left and right, as is clearly happening in Peru, where an unprecedented number of people simply spoilt their ballots. There has also been a rise in the number of parties campaigning on single issues or identity politics – younger political parties focusing more on gender and the environment, for example – that could have eroded support for traditional leftists. And then there’s the weak economy and the devastating effects of coronavirus, which have led some leaders to shine and others to fall from grace.
After years of swings between left and right, politics in Latin America is becoming increasingly fragmented. This is not necessarily a bad thing: recent elections suggest the region is moving away from strongman figures. But who will take their place? For the moment, it’s anyone’s guess; what’s clear is that landslide victories are becoming a thing of the past.